About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on July 20, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Michael Lewitt, founder of The Credit Strategy Group and writer of The Credit Strategist, a popular and acclaimed investment newsletter.

 

 

 

 

 

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Simon HuntErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Simon Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Internal political wars within China stagnating economic growth
  • China's steady, step-wise approach to allowing firm bankruptcies
  • Shift in global monetary policy power from Washington to Beijing
  • Internal IMF battle for RMB's inclusion in SDR
  • Looming inflation in commodity prices
  • Logic behind China's stockpiling of raw commodities and base metals
  • Strengthening strategic alliance between Russia and China
  • Trump vs. Clinton impacts on financial markets
  • Growing global discontent to USD "bully boy" tactics and de-dollarization
  • Impending global stock market crash and economic reset within the next 5 years
  • Gold's eventual reemergence as the global monetary base

 

 

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Mike Lebowitz 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Michael Lebowitz to MacroVoices. Erik and Michael discuss:

  • The saving discipline that drives the virtuous economic cycle and sustains prosperity
  • A global economy untethered from demographics and productivity
  • End game for the unvirtuous cycle of debt-fueled consumption
  • Outlook for negative interest rate policies
  • Brexit as representative of larger social, geopolitical, and wealth distributional forces
  • Japan outlook given worst-in-class demographics and productivity growth
  • Alternatives for savers throughout the demise of the virtuous cycle
  • Trump v. Clinton impacts on global financial markets

 

 

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on April 14, 2016 with Roy Sebag and Josh Crumb, co-founders of Bitgold, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Strategy Officer of Goldmoney, respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

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Gurevich PhotoErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Market reaction to latest FOMC policy decision
  • Concurrent necessity and dominance of the long U.S. dollar trade
  • Importance of placing current Fed actions in the context of historical rate-hiking cycles
  • Egregiously cheap valuations on 10-year Treasury Notes
  • Where we stand in the current bond bull market
  • Gold's positive risk-reward and return expectations in the coming years
  • Arguments for a long-Nikkei trade
  • Opportunities in USD/JPY
  • China's $30 trillion private debt unwind and history of imperial collapse
  • Migrant and political crises' effects on the future of the Euro
  • Capital market impacts of a Trump or Clinton presidency

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Raoul PalErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • Structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD
  • Outlook for Treasuries given recent sell-off in bonds
  • Update on Raoul's business cycle framework
  • 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies
  • Recent spat of "Billionbears" coming to the forefront with downside calls
  • Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe
  • Crowded risk-parity trades and reasons behind all-time short-VIX open interest
  • Gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations
  • Monetary policy and the Fed's growing irrelevancy
  • Precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector
  • Potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles
  • Updates on new Realvision TV products and initiatives

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on April 4, 2016 between Grant Williams and Michael Schneider, Chief Investment Officer of Brookline Partners.

 

 

 

 

 

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J ChristianErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar predictions and the range-bound outlook
  • Brexit contagion and potential impacts on gold and silver
  • Forward near-term guidane for gold and silver prices
  • Outlooks for macroeconomic drivers of precious metals
  • Economic and financial susceptibility given middling global GDP growth
  • Rejecting old mental models with unprecedentedly low real and nominal interest rates 
  • Excess reserve accumulation backfiring against Fed intentions
  • Continued expected disinflationary and deflationary forces until monetary and/or fiscal policy shifts
  • Low probability of a medium-term moonshot in precious metals prices assuming continued disinflation
  • Billionaire investors going public with bearish economic and market calls
  • Degradation of global political cooperation
  • Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals

 

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories
  • Recent anomalous comparative builds relative to historic trends
  • Continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis
  • The selective capital raising environment for producers
  • Oil market balance and Saudi Arabia's fundamentally ineffectual 'production freeze'
  • Stabilizing US production and evaporation of upside price catalysts
  • Feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production
  • Claims of sub-$40 producers in the Permian basin
  • Concerns over consumption growth not aligning with change in prices
  • Timing for a moonshot in oil prices following a period of supply destruction and investment deficits

 

 

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RealVision TV red 02A conversation on January 5, 2016 between Grant Williams and Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of the worldwide bestseller The Big Reset.

 

 

 

 

 

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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