About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • If the Fed really was printing money, there'd be no need to sell it to the public in general, financial services industry specifically.
  • Chairman Powell appeared on 60 Minutes in May, and while everyone focused on his statement "create money digitally" no one noticed three important lies the Chairman told.
  • There isn't the slightest hint of inflation in any meaningful market after almost three months of so-called money printing. Nor in corporate boardrooms.
  • The most optimistic case, the base comparison the Fed (and CBO) is using, is that this will all end up being worse than the 2008-09 Great "Recession." 
  • Hopefully back to even by the end of next year isn't quite what people have in mind, and that's why this openly aggressive central bank response (lying).

Supporting Materials for Download

                                                                  The Flood Myth - Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 06 01 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Shape of the economic recovery: Why “Letter Shapes” like V, W, L, and U are insufficient to describe what will occur
  • How financial markets will react to multiple recovery scenarios in the real economy
  • U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID19 world
  • State of the art in industrial drone technology

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deflation vs. Inflation
  • Is it MMT that makes the difference between depression and reflation?
  • Equity market outlook after the COVID-19 crisis

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar Outlook – Why Brent still forecasts an upside resolution to the USD consolidation
  • S&P 500 forecast
  • Gold & Gold Miners
  • Commodities outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #104 Brent Johnson Chartbook May 11 2020

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Bank reserves fall under an outdated definition of "base money", therefore it isn't clear what an increase in bank reserves actually signifies.
  • Beginning with inflation expectations, if the Fed was printing money then its missing from the bond market; TIPS suggest crisis level lows for short run and long run inflation conditions (deflation, in other words)
  • Despite that $1.5 trillion, LIBOR remains crucially elevated; TED spread behaving just like 2008
  • You're not supposed to question what central banks actually do, because if you think through the actual process you'll see there's far less than you're made to believe (belief is what matters in modern monetary policy)

Supporting Materials for Download

Not Money Printing - GFC2: The Bowl's Empty 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Louis’ post-crisis macro outlook
  • U.S.-China relations after the crisis and what it means for markets
  • Erik & Louis comment on the crash of May Crude oil futures to -$40 in real time as it happens in the market

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar: What are the drivers and what’s Julian’s outlook
  • Stock Market outlook: Is it time for new shorts or is there more upside?

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Bail-out nation: Will the long list of bailout packages tip the economy into secular inflation?
  • Unexpected knock-on effects: What aspects of society will change from the crisis and why?
  • Bio-hazards and Bio-Weapons: Why do governments need bio-weapons laboratories and what if an accident led to another outbreak?

 

 

 

 

 

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All-Star Louis-Vinecnt Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Why Asia and Europe had such profoundly different outcomes from the COVID19 Pandemic
  • Three crisis for the price of one: Why markets are currently experiencing three separate crises at once
  • Coming challenges for Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to buy trillions of dollars of debt. Otherwise asset markets will crash.
  • How much is enough? Luke says in theory if the economy shuts down completely, the Fed would have to buy “all” the outstanding debt. That’s $47tn!
  • How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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