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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Is this just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger?
  • Is this all about rates or the VIX complex?
  • Why were the Inverse VIX products flawed
  • Context on the increasing rates and the movement of the dollar
  • Stagflation and inflation risks
  • Considerations on corporate debt and buybacks
  • Impact of the changes of leadership at the FED
  • Context on FED policy tools during the next recession
  • Is this a Bear Stearns moment for the markets?

 

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JaredDillianErik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss:

  • Drivers of this stock market drop
  • Is higher volatility here to stay?
  • The beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade
  • Future regulation of these specialty ETF products
  • Where are the markets heading from here? 
  • Bonds, interest rates and how high can rates go?
  • Where is the U.S. dollar heading next?
  • Dollars relationship to gold
  • Outlook on the Canadian economy

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUESTS:

Chris Cole from Artemis Capital - Follow up on his January 25th interview on Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk.
Devin Anderson - Managing Director - Postmortem on the implosion of the vol ETNs  

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Reflecting on the current oil market
  • Where are the comparative inventories
  • OPEC decisions and actions dominating price
  • Context on OPEC production cuts
  • How much new oil is coming from higher prices
  • Economics on the shale oil fields
  • Perspective on US oil exports
  • Exports primary reason behind U.S. inventory reductions
  • Underinvestment in exploration and development

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: Energy Markets Commercial Broker Patricia Hemsworth to discuss producer hedging, WTI/Brent spreads and the forward curve price dynamics.

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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chris cole picErik Townsend welcomes Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Risks in share buybacks
  • Defining the short volatility trade
  • Explicit vs implicit short vol positions
  • Risk parity, VAR control, Risk Premia and CTAs
  • Considerations on the unwind of the short VIX trade
  • History of correlations on stocks and bonds
  • The scenario where we can have another 1987 market drop again
  • Consideration on the growing trend to passive investing
  • Potential catalysis for market triggers

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Chris will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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mark imageErik Townsend welcomes Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Outlook for the US dollar for 2018
  • Are rate differentials going to impact the dollar move?
  • Considerations on the Yuan oil contract
  • Is the bond bull market over?
  • Low inflation vs. stagnation
  • Is the oil rally sustainable?
  • Outlook on the commodity markets
  • Considerations on the equity markets
  • Perspectives on China’s economy
  • Will the European Union survive?
  • Outlook for the Euro currency
  • Bullish emerging markets and currencies

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JoshSteinerHeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Macro drivers of the Canadian and Australian real estate markets
  • Canada’s "Minsky Moment"
  • Turning up the heat with policies
  • Impact on Canadian Banks
  • Australian one-cylinder economy
  • Perspective on the Australian construction boom
  • Negative gearing in Australia and home equity withdrawal
  • Considerations on U.S. real estate
  • There is still room to run in the U.S. markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Josh will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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YuskoSniderGromenfinalMacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 5 of the 5 Part Series, the panel discuss the possible outcomes:

  • What sign posts for the big change?
  • Potential triggers for a lower U.S. dollar
  • Can structural changes be implemented
  • Which investment assets will work the best?
  • Which investment assets will work the worst?
  • Considerations on investment portfolios

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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YuskoSniderGromenfinalMacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 4 of the 5 Part Series, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen present:

  • Gold as a Reserve Asset
  • Gold/Oil Ratio
  • Bypassing the US Dollar
  • Dollar shortage caused by oil price
  • Deficits starting to matter
  • U.S. losing its status as a hegemonic power
  • Logistics in replacing the U.S. System
  • How does the end of Dollar Hegemony occur?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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YuskoSniderGromenfinalErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 3 of the 5 part series, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen present: 

  • U.S. Dollar Cyclical Pattern
  • Looking at the Dollar Technicals
  • Is there room for one more rally?
  • Gold and the Oil for Yuan Plan
  • Impacts to Emerging Markets
  • Demographics, Deflation and Lower Rates
  • Welcome to Multi-Polar FX World
  • China and Russia’s end-game strategy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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YuskoSniderGromenfinalErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 2 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:

  • The post 2007 U.S. Dollar shortage
  • How does the dollar scarcity play out?
  • Problems facing China at the moment
  • Considerations on China’s gold buying
  • Is a RMB crypto currency possible?
  • Do American politicians even know there is a problem?
  • Dollar short squeeze not a U.S. Dollar bull
  • Global De-dollarization

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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YuskoSniderGromenfinalErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 1 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:

  • Overview of the big picture story
  • Perspectives on where we are today
  • Bulls vs. Bears (nobody wins)
  • Bank of Russia operations in FX repo auctions
  • Brazilian Real and the US dollar funding
  • China’s management of the US dollar
  • The evolving Chinese response

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend welcomes Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Reflecting on the 2008 crisis
  • What is going to go wrong with the current credit cycle
  • False narratives around QE and bank reserves
  • Where is the risk to correction in asset pricing?
  • Walking dead of debt and the zombies to be
  • Considerations on Japan, Canada and China
  • How long does this debt cycle last?
  • Will the next crisis be more wide spread?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Steve will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Juliette DeclercqErik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • US Economy Late in the Cycle
  • China’s Macro Landscape
  • Where is Inflation Heading?
  • Caution on equities 2018
  • Direction for 10year Bonds
  • The US Yield Curve and Potential Recession
  • When has the Fed gone too far?
  • Changing of the guard at the FED
  • USD bearish outlook

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend welcomes Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Saudi Arabia Politics
  • The power shift in the Middle East
  • Petrodollar and the Yuan oil contract
  • Considerations on American oil
  • Understanding the OPEC and Russia relationship
  • Saudi Aramco IPO
  • Future of electric vehicle market
  • The outlook on uranium
  • Understanding global uranium enrichment
  • Future of Russia and Vladimir Putin

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TepperErik Townsend welcomes Jonathan Tepper back to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss:

  • Outlook on the US Dollar
  • The momentum trade on global equities
  • Contrarian call on the retailers
  • Update on Australian real estate
  • Outlook on China
  • Considerations on the Canadian economy

    SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: Derivatives expert Devin Anderson to discuss the VIX complex and the short VOL trade

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Filia HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

  • Measuring the equity bubble
  • Measuring the bond bubble
  • What could be the catalyst be for the reversal?
  • Fake market narrative
  • Chasing narratives and global growth
  • Positive feedback loops
  • ETFs and their impact on the markets
  • Systemic risks from funds not just banks
  • Considerations on European junk bonds
  • S&P values vs. share buybacks
  • Risks to the market from the short VOL trade

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: The Macro Tourist Kevin Muir discussing bonds, inflation and the coming collapse of the short VIX trade. 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Keith McCullough headshotErik Townsend welcomes Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Bullish narrative on equities 
  • Valuation is not a catalyst
  • Trends in growth and inflation
  • Where are we in the economic cycle
  • Global economic divergences
  • Growth acceleration puts a lid on market multiples
  • Earnings considerations
  • Considerations on technology valuations
  • Long/short strategies

    We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Bastardization of money
  • Failure of Primus in 2009
  • Reflecting on the failure of AIG
  • Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
  • Henry Paulson and Glass–Steagall
  • The Eurodollar system going parabolic in the 2000s
  • Banks manipulating regulations
  • FOMC understanding of Eurodollars
  • Big Picture end game of the Eurodollar system

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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You may also be interested in:

Eurodollar University Part 1

Eurodollar University Part 2

 Eurodollar University Part 3

Grant WilliamsErik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Outlook for the US dollar
  • Update on the Petroyuan oil contract 
  • Edge of the Cliff 
  • Inflation Risks on the Horizon?
  • When is the time for gold?
  • Thoughts on cryptocurrencies
  • Considerations on interest rates and yields
  • Australian real estate
  • Perspective on China’s credit bubble
  • Writing is on the wall in Europe

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HarleyBassman250xErik Townsend welcomes Harley Bassman to MacroVoices. Erik and Harley discuss:

  • Creation of the MOVE index 
  • The three Drivers of Risk:  Duration, Credit, and Convexity
  • The demographic of the Baby Boomers continues to drive financial markets
  • Looking at the long-term profile of changes in the Labor Force
  • Changes in Labor Force growth leads 10-year yields
  • Labor participation rates are highly demographic
  • Considerations on inflation risks:  Yes…..but not until 2024 when the Boomer/Millennial demographic inflects
  • Perspective on CAPE ratio levels
  • Correlation of buybacks to cumulative flows
  • Gold is not an asset, but rather an alternative currency
  • Flow of active to passive management is building a negatively convex foundation
  • Triggers for a market correction

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • The Basel Accords
  • Capital Reserve Ratios
  • Understanding risk weightings
  • Leverage in bank capital
  • Considerations on JPM RiskMetrics
  • Basic interbank function
  • Interbank function under Basel

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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You may also be interested in:

Eurodollar University Part 1

Eurodollar University Part 2

Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Comparative inventory levels on oil 
  • Oil price responsive to inventories
  • Realization price recovery in crude prices takes time
  • Refinery intakes have not recovered
  • Where are average consumption levels
  • Outlook on gasoline & distillate stocks
  • Backwardation on WTI
  • Considerations on OPEC-NOPEC production cuts
  • Global market balance on oil

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J ChristianErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Outlook on the US Dollar
  • Global de-dollarization
  • Outlook on gold and silver
  • Considerations on basic materials
  • Why are grains so weak?
  • Considerations on new crude oil contract with settlement in yuan, backed by gold 
  • The next Fed Chairman
  • ECB policy considerations and decentralization trends in Europe
  • Considerations on the Russian economy
  • Credit issues in China

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • The case of the missing money
  • Transformation of banking into a wholesale model
  • Radical monetary evolution
  • Wholesale vs Offshore Eurodollars
  • Understanding the great inflation of the 1970s
  • Repo markets of the 1970s
  • Development of the Shadow Banking System

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Yusko With Tie3 2016Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Yuskov to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • US Dollar bear thesis from 2016
  • Petrodollar world
  • Ascendance of the Renminbi
  • Treasury bonds as a reserve asset
  • Crude oil contract traded in yuan convertible to gold
  • One Belt One Road Initiative
  • Has the blow off top on the dollar occurred?
  • Incrementalism

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Mark Yusko Interview Part 2: All Things Macro 

  • Is there room for further upside on the stock markets?
  • Is the secular bond bull market over? 
  • Inflation outlook
  • Precious metals and commodities

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Mark Grant Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Outlook for the US Dollar and Euro
  • Where are the US equity markets going?
  • Impact of Global CB policy vs the FED
  • Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
  • Impact of the hurricanes on the economy
  • Outlook for Gold and Silver
  • Considerations on European geopolitics
  • Perspectives on China’s credit bubble
  • Underfunded pension crisis
  • Escalation of North Korea tensions

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Hugh Hendry HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

  • Global economic outlook
  • Is wage and price inflation coming?
  • Outlook for the US dollar
  • Where are interest rates and the yield curve going?
  • Bond volatility vs. steepener
  • Consideration on precious metals
  • Outlook for the Global equity markets
  • The credit bubble in China
  • Outlook for the Macro hedge fund industry

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Unfortunately, due to travel there will be no early podcast release tonight.

We sincerely apologize for this delay. We will publish the next podcast this Thursday per the usual schedule.

LukeGromenErik Townsend welcomes Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

  • Why be bearish on the US Dollar?
  • Do budget deficits matter?
  • New yuan oil contract changing global landscape
  • Impact on global Eurodollar system
  • Long gold, short oil
  • What is wrong with a new QE?
  • Impact on global holding of Treasury Bonds
  • Is inflation in the US a risk?
  • Is the economic endgame starting?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • How Dollar becomes ‘Dollar’
  • Bankers’ Acceptances
  • The Evolution of Eurodollars
  • Where do Eurodollars come from?
  • Money as interbank liabilities
  • What exactly are Eurodollars?
  • Transformation of banking into a wholesale model

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JoeMcMonigle headshotErik Townsend welcomes Joe McMonigle to MacroVoices. Erik and Joe discuss:

  • Is the oil supply glut rebalancing?
  • Is OPEC just jawboning the market?
  • Import data impacting oil inventories
  • Outlook for U.S. oil production
  • Update on Venezuelan geopolitics
  • What can go wrong with Iran?
  • Is the Petrodollar system at risk?
  • Is the Saudi Aramco IPO going to happen?
  • Is the term structure signaling bullish prices

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JoshCrumbErik Townsend welcomes Josh Crumb to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Perspectives on what is gold?
  • Energy defining the price of gold
  • Interest rates influence on gold
  • Gold vs. cryptocurrencies
  • Government sponsored cryptocurrencies
  • Outlook for the US dollar
  • Forecast for gold prices
  • Impact stock market volatility would have on gold prices
  • Considerations on silver and bitcoins
  • Allocated vs. unallocated gold and gold ETFs

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Howe HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

  • What is the Fourth Turning?
  • Why the Fourth Turning started with GFC
  • Is there another big global event on the horizon?
  • Future changes in political landscape
  • What to expect for the next decade?
  • Impact of baby boomers retiring
  • Understanding the Homelander generation
  • Silent vs. Homelander generation
  • Reflections on the Fourth Turning book and new consideration

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Julian BrigdenJulian BrigdenRaoul PalRaoul Pal

Erik Townsend welcomes Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik, Raoul and Julian discuss:

  • Views on the US Dollar
  • Perspectives on equities and business cycle?
  • Outlook on the bond bull market
  • Will we see a new bull market in precious metals?
  • Demographics and Japan
  • Considerations on the coming pension crisis
  • Where is oil going next?
  • Parallels to the 1990’s business cycle

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ChrisWhalenPicErik Townsend welcomes Chris Whalen to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Perspectives on the U.S. dollar pullback
  • Considerations on the overvalued equity markets
  • Corporate debt and interest rate trends
  • Outlook on bonds and levels of private debt
  • Trump bump and the aftermath
  • Is the secular bond bull market over
  • Reflecting back on Chris’s book – Inflated
  • Considerations on the coming pension crisis
  • Highlights on Chris’s new book – Ford Men

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend welcomes Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Update on European geopolitics
  • What is in store for European migration
  • Considerations on Turkish politics
  • Geopolitics associated with the cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies
  • Future of US dollars roll as world reserve currency
  • Post Donald Trump Texas economics
  • Understanding the PPT (Plunge Protection Team)

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hunt ben 300px keylineErik Townsend welcomes Dr. Ben Hunt to back MacroVoices. Erik and Ben discuss:

  • Sea of Change at Central Banks
  • Negative impact of Fed shrinking their balance sheet
  • Janet Yellen just broke up with you
  • Impact on the market conditions moving forward
  • Considerations on interest rate and bond trends
  • Fed impact on equity markets
  • Considerations for the future of the ETF market
  • Flaws of the volatility ETFs
  • Considerations in the Real Estate Markets

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Tian HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:

  • US growth cycle long in the tooth
  • US LEI’s holding up but US recession key theme
  • US credit cycle has definitely rolled over
  • Global liquidity also deteriorating sharply
  • China is also rolling over
  • Looking at global equities
  • Fixed income considerations
  • Consideration on the US dollar
  • Looking at Europe, Japan and Australia

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Tian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Gurevich PhotoErik Townsend welcomes Alex Gurevich back to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Mario Draghi and ECB
  • Short the Swiss Franc
  • US Dollar outlook
  • Trump reflation and the equity markets
  • Views on secular interest rates
  • Inflation trade
  • Long-term sustainability of the European Union
  • Outlook on China and Japan
  • Canadian economy, real estate and Canadian dollar
  • Consideration on the oil markets
  • Precious metals outlook

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jessefeldermacrovoicepicErik Townsend welcomes Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • DeMark indicators and turning points in exhausted trends 
  • Looking at current breadth indicators
  • Considerations on share buybacks
  • Are we at the secular turn in corporate share buybacks?
  • Looking at the VIX short positioning
  • Volatility targeting strategies like risk parity
  • Is the market setting up for a crash or just a correction
  • Demographic catalysts
  • Real assets outperforming financial assets
  • Can inflation runaway?
  • Outlook on Precious metals

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jesse will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Keith McCullough headshotErik Townsend welcomes back Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss::

  • Outlook on the US Dollar
  • Is the reflation trade narrative rolling over
  • Bullish outlook on the US markets and the Nasdaq
  • Where are bond yields going?
  • Are the secular lows in bond yields in?
  • Outlook on Europe and the Euro
  • Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies
  • Outlook on the emerging markets
  • Is there more upside in precious metals?
  • Outlook on China’s debt and economy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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2014 02 13 Axel headshotErik Townsend welcomes Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

  • Mario Draghi and the ECB policy
  • UK Election and what is at stake
  • Future of the European Union
  • Perspectives on the Trump reflation trade
  • U.S. Dollar, fiscal and monetary policy
  • Understanding the pension crisis
  • Chinese Yuan devaluation
  • Future of Japanese Debt and Yen
  • Outlook on gold

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Perspective on OPEC and the 9-month extension on production cuts
  • OPEC’s goal to keep a floor under oil prices
  • Positioning of oil traders since February
  • Reasons for lower oil prices
  • Putting U.S. production into perspective
  • Where does comparative inventory price Brent and WTI
  • Inventory data and forecasts
  • Impact of capital markets and central bank policy
  • Early recovery from oil price collapse
  • Correlation of U.S. debt to tight oil
  • Term structure of the crude oil markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Perspective on OPEC and the 9-month extension on production cuts
  • OPEC’s goal to keep a floor under oil prices
  • Positioning of oil traders since February
  • Reasons for lower oil prices
  • Putting U.S. production into perspective
  • Where does comparative inventory price Brent and WTI
  • Inventory data and forecasts
  • Impact of capital markets and central bank policy
  • Early recovery from oil price collapse
  • Correlation of U.S. debt to tight oil
  • Term structure of the crude oil markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Understanding Eurodollars and the Eurodollar shortage
  • The real drivers of the US Dollar bull market
  • The flaws in the reflation trade narrative
  • Looking at the swap spreads turning positive
  • Inflation outlook
  • Connection between Eurodollars and gold
  • TIC US Banking Data – Caribbean, Europe, Asia
  • Impact of QE on Eurodollars
  • China and PBOC considerations
  • Absolute improvement vs. relative

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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RussellNapierMacroVoicesErik Townsend welcomes Professor Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

  • Is the U.S. Dollar bull market over?  
  • Secular treasury bond bull market
  • The coming pension crisis
  • Inflation expectations
  • Outlook for precious metals
  • European exit contagion

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LacyHuntBio2017Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy discuss:

  • Are the secular lows in interest rates in?
  • Minsky vs. Kindelberger
  • Is the U.S. “Turning Japanese”?
  • Impact of demographics

  • Negative interest rates
  • Fed hiking into deteriorating economy
  • Dollar viability as reserve currency
  • European sovereign debt

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend welcomes Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Insights into the French elections
  • The next move in the US Dollar
  • Is the bond bull market over?
  • Considerations on the levels of private debt
  • Geopolitics of North Korea and Syria
  • The economics of China’s debt crisis
  • Can we avoid another financial crisis
  • Are we at the next Minsky moment?
  • Housing bubbles in Canada and Australia
  • Considerations for the U.S. housing market 

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maa photoErik Townsend welcomes Martin Armstrong to MacroVoices. Erik and Martin discuss:

  • Views on the U.S. Dollar
  • The future of the European Union
  • Bullish case for U.S. stocks
  • Considerations for international money flows
  • Future interest rate trends
  • Looking at government debt
  • Geopolitics of North Korea and Syria
  • Considerations on China and the debt crisis

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DDB Headshot NewErik Townsend welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss:

  • Looking at the Fed from the inside
  • Shadow Banking System
  • Reflecting on the Global Financial Crisis
  • The culture at the Reserve Banks
  • What should be done with the Fed?
  • Can interest rates ever be normalized?
  • Considerations on the Underfunded Pensions
  • What needs to happen next? 

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Lance RobertsErik Townsend welcomes Lance Roberts to MacroVoices. Erik and Lance discuss:

  • Liquidity Driven Markets
  • Fed Balance Sheet Driving Asset Prices
  • Margin Debt Net Credit Balance
  • Margin Debt as a % of Real GDP
  • Total Liabilities & Equity /GVA
  • Total System Leverage
  • The Economic Deficit
  • Peaks in Real Profit Margins

If you want the download but have yet to register, here’s what to do: First, click on the red “Subscribe for free” button on the top right side of the home page, Then, near the bottom of the next screen, click “Register my free MacroVoices account”. Once you’re registered and logged in, click “Research Library” on the black menu bar at the top of the screen, then choose “Guest Publications”. You’ll see the download link near the top of the list, and you can also download guest presentations from any prior episode from this page. Going forward, you’ll automatically receive our Research Roundup e-mail when each show comes out, and it will include a convenient download link for any materials associated with that week’s interview.

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Juliette DeclercqErik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • US Dollar, 10-year UST and the FOMC
  • Red string of fate ties U.S. to China
  • Perspective on the FOMC policy
  • Perspectives on the business cycle
  • Where is the ISM heading next
  • Impact on Trump’s tax and infrastructure spending
  • Surprises for the French election

If you want the download but have yet to register, here’s what to do: First, click on the red “Subscribe for free” button on the top right side of the home page, Then, near the bottom of the next screen, click “Register my free MacroVoices account”. Once you’re registered and logged in, click “Research Library” on the black menu bar at the top of the screen, then choose “Guest Publications”. You’ll see the download link near the top of the list, and you can also download guest presentations from any prior episode from this page. Going forward, you’ll automatically receive our Research Roundup e-mail when each show comes out, and it will include a convenient download link for any materials associated with that week’s interview.

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar impact on the U.S. shale bubble
  • Peak acceleration in ISM manufacturing
  • Headline inflation peaking
  • Fed tightening going to start to impact data
  • Bond shorting opportunity is over
  • Risks to the reflationary trades
  • Wage trends in the U.S.
  • Perspective on European growth and inflation
  • Relative pricing between U.S. and European bunds

If you want the download but have yet to register, here’s what to do: First, click on the red “Subscribe for free” button on the top right side of the home page, Then, near the bottom of the next screen, click “Register my free MacroVoices account”. Once you’re registered and logged in, click “Research Library” on the black menu bar at the top of the screen, then choose “Guest Publications”. You’ll see the download link near the top of the list, and you can also download guest presentations from any prior episode from this page. Going forward, you’ll automatically receive our Research Roundup e-mail when each show comes out, and it will include a convenient download link for any materials associated with that week’s interview.

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J ChristianErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • Outlook on the US Dollar
  • Secular bullish call on gold
  • Outlook on silver
  • Current demand for physical gold
  • Platinum and palladium
  • Current fundamentals on lithium
  • Macro outlook on the economy and stock markets
  • Views on the European Union
  • Outlook for China and Russia

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TepperErik Townsend welcomes Jonathan Tepper to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss:

  • Excess liquidity and the impact to equities, emerging markets and commodity prices
  • Inflation risks
  • The real end game and runaway inflation
  • Comments on the 35-year secular bull market in sovereign bonds and the yield curve
  • Australia – the housing bubble in full bloom
  • Perspectives on China and Japan
  • Outlook for the U.S. Dollar
  • Variant Perception's perspective on macro analysis

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Catalyst for the current decline in oil
  • Lack of confidence in OPEC
  • Record levels of oil inventories
  • Comparative inventories to past years
  • World production surplus
  • Global liquids consumption growth
  • OECD incremental liquids Inventory
  • EIA U.S. crude oil forecast

We strongly recommend that you download thechart bookthat accompanies this interview. Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Grant WilliamsErik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • The rise and drivers of populism
  • Trump and the animal spirits driving the markets
  • Trump’s stance on ISIS
  • Peak optimism
  • Is there a crisis in China?
  • Gold/copper ratio
  • Stagflation
  • U.S. dollar outlook
  • Is the 35 year bond bull market over? 

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Louis 201211Erik Townsend welcomes Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss:

  • China Reflation Trade
  • Is Chinese Growth Rolling Over?
  • Will Trump Get a Weaker US Dollar?
  • Brexit and the Future of the European Union
  • Philippines and Rodrigo Duterte
  • Rise of the Chinese Empire
  • India and the Indian Currency System
  • Opinions on Stocks and Bonds
  • Investment Themes for 2017
  • Risks for 2017

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DSC06699 2Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • Understanding the Eurodollar Money Market 
  • Swap Spreads and Interbank Hierarchy
  • Dimensions in the Eurodollar Futures and Eurodollar Money Supply
  • Why does the World Need So Many Dollars?
  • How the Eurodollar market supplanted the Bretton Woods System
  • U.S. Dollar and the Dollar Funding Gap
  • Reflation Trade Debunked
  • Interest Rates Trapped
  • Failing Global Currency System

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library”  and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Jim Rogers largeErik Townsend welcomes Jim Rogers back to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • What’s in store for the U.S. Equity Markets?
  • Outlook on the U.S. Dollar
  • Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
  • Where are junk bonds going?
  • History of government failures
  • His views on the global populist movements
  • Is there war on the horizon? 
  •  Are the Russian’s being scapegoated? 
  • Update on his views on gold
  • His views on movement to cashless society
  • Are we moving away from a free society?

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JSchwager Photo Barcelona FINALErik Townsend welcomes Jack Schwager to MacroVoices. Erik and Jack discuss:

  • How has futures trading evolved over the last few decades?
  • Understanding leverage – stocks vs. futures
  • Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis
  • The Most Important Rule in Technical Trading
  • Understanding Continuous Futures Contacts
  • Systems Trading
  • Understanding Fundamental Analysis on Futures
  • Lessons from the Market Wizards
  • What’s new at Fundseeder

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David Rosenberg headshot HRErik Townsend welcomes David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • How long does the Trump rally last?
  • Is inflation really a risk moving forward?  
  • When is it time to become bearish on the markets? 
  • When is it time to make your fundamental asset mix shift?
  • Fed will play an important role in how the cycle plays out
  • US dollar outlook
  • Canadian Dollar and Canadian Monetary Policy
  • Future of European Union
  • Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
  • Opportunities and Outlook for 2017 

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Raoul Pal

Erik Townsend welcomes back Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision TV back to MacroVoices.  Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • Trump impact on the U.S. Dollar
  • Is the bond bull market over and where are yields moving from here
  • Update on the business cycle (spoiler alert: it is long in the tooth)
  • Looking at the European banks and can they survive the next recession
  • The overcrowded VIX contango trade
  • The short-term direction of gold
  • The big opportunities of 2017
  • Update on crude oil
  • Junk bonds, when do the credit risk return

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Rick RuleErik Townsend welcomes back Rick Rule from Sprott Global to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

  • Trump impact on precious metal prices
  • Impact of real yields, inflation, debt and the U.S. Dollar on gold prices
  • Due Diligence in making private placements in gold and silver mining companies
  • Evaluating intellectual property and physical property
  • Characteristics successful and failed endeavors
  • The risk vs. reward of speculating in pre-revenue private placements
  • How much time and capital is needed to invest in early stage startups
  • Being a contrarian, looking where the market is not paying attention

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David HayErik Townsend welcomes David Hay to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Trump victory rally likely overbought
  • Recession risk remains high
  • Market fails to discount effect of Trump tax plan on corporate buybacks
  • USD Rally can’t continue indefinitely; Plaza Accord 2.0 is inevitable
  • Global debt burden poses serious risk to full recovery
  • Recession could still spell much lower treasury yields
  • China situation bad but probably not bad enough to trigger global downturn
  • Energy MLPs have tripled in 2016 – Dave still Bullish

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally aired on June 2, 2016, between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Edward Misrahi, Goldman Sachs alumni and founder of Eton Park.

 

 

 

 

 

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E 4552Color 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 4. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the final part of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

  • Definition and origins of the hedge fund
  • Whether active managers are able to outperform the market
  • Impediments to investing in the "top name" hedge funds
  • Various hedge fund strategies
  • How to learn and gather more information on hedge funds
  • CTA's and managed futures commodity pools
  • Fund of funds

 

 

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally published on August 2, 2016, between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Paul J. Isaac, CEO and Founder of Arbiter Partners Capital Management.

 

 

 

 

  

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David S Rose 2013Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3A. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and David discuss:

  • Background and introduction to angel investing and entrepreneurship through his great uncle David Rose
  • What angel investing actually is, how it might fit in a portfolio, and who it is suited for
  • The time-horizon, temperament, and risk-tolerance required for angel investing
  • The appropriate mind-set when approaching angel investing
  • Expected investment returns from angel investing and the role of diversification
  • Why it's “far better to invest in the jockey than on the horse”
  • Balancing and matching between entrepreneurial execution and bright ideas
  • Mechanics and funding sequence of an angel deal
  • Post-investment lifecycle
  • The importance of networking with veteran angel investors prior to initial investments
  • How the Angel Capital Association vets angel investing groups
  • Learning through reading, finding a mentor, and investing
  • Gust.com angel investing platform, Singularity University and exponential technology

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E 4552Color 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

  • The definition of angel investing
  • Profile of a successful angel investor
  • Professionally-managed alternative investment vehicles
  • Mechanics and nuances involved with investing in alternative vehicles
  • Difference between con men and the true outperformers
  • Investment minimums and investor quotas in 3(c)(1) and 3(c)(7) funds
  • Origins of the 2/20 fee structure and appropriate due diligence
  • Particulars of venture capital and private equity limited partnerships
  • Benefits of getting marketing material from funds

 

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally published on April 29, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Jawad Mian, Founder and Managing Editor of Stray Reflections, a global macro research and trading advisory with a focus on major investment themes and actionable trade ideas.

 

 

 

  

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • Waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises
  • Central bank over-reaction to oil crash and now cyclical inflation
  • Potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017
  • China moving from exporting deflation to inflation
  • Peak central bank omnipotence
  • Potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices
  • Similarities between present conditions and 1986-87
  • Impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding
  • U.S. oil substitution leading to a deficit of reserves around the world
  • Timeline for replacing the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency
  • Real Vision Publications Homepage and Launch Video

 

 

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Professor Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

  • How Trump might be the most Keynesian President since Reagan
  • Possibility of a recession occurring before U.S. fiscal stimulus is implemented
  • Private debt level's inability to absorb higher rates
  • Prospects for a debt jubilee and subsequent credit boom
  • Implementation and distribution of debt jubilee as "people's QE"
  • Unconstrained QE from central banks
  • European Union disintegration making Lehman look like a picnic
  • Knock-on effects from European Union disintegration
  • Last gasps of neoliberalism evidenced by upcoming UK university classification system

 

 

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means
  • Production cut being more akin to a floor than a ceiling
  • False conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market
  • How excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come
  • Weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices
  • Resumption of U.S. production in response to higher prices
  • OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media
  • Weakening global economy as the main driver for low oil prices

 

 

 

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E 4552Color 1

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 2. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the second of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

  • The process of re-inventing oneself from running a company as an entrepreneur to managing and running money
  • Skillset required for investing versus entrepreneurship
  • Resources for re-educating yourself into a sophisticated investor
  • Options in alternative financial media
  • The utility of financial and private investor conferences and groups
  • The different categories of private investors and the work required
  • How to take a more active role in managing your own investments
  • Difference between an asset allocator and a full-time investor

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on April 8, 2016 between Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Fund Management Plc.

 

 

 

 

  

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Paul Krake 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

  • The bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election 
  • Prevailing narrative of fiscal stimulus given a Republican sweep of Congress
  • Ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency
  • Violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets
  • The resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation
  • Validity of rising inflation expectations and timeline for commodity price uplift
  • U.S. Dollar breakout's adverse effects on Emerging Market equities and fixed income
  • Potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar
  • Unwinding of overcrowded Emerging Markets trades
  • Gold losing its predictive ability and relevance
  • China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest
  • China's growing sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific as the U.S. embraces isolationism
  • 'Legal grabs' leading to waning U.S. hegemony
  • State of the global commodities supercycle
  • Tailwinds for the Japanese economy and equities despite structural demographic issues

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pippa malmgren harald malmgren

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Harald Malmgren and Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik, Harald, and Pippa discuss:

  • Trump's governance effectiveness in light of the enemies he has made on the campaign trail
  • What Trump's dollar-spend per voter portends for the moneyed lobbyists
  • Sources and potential escalation of social unrest and riots in the aftermath of Trump's victory
  • The long-running trend of repressive economic conditions and Fed policy leading to unrest
  • The potential for Trump to galvanize the determination, grit, and work ethic of the American electorate
  • Whether markets are prematurely jumping to the conclusion that Trump is necessarily inflationary
  • Constitutional limitations pertaining to specific policies espoused by Trump during the campaign
  • Outlook for foreign relations with China, Russia, and Mexico
  • The big picture behind the global populist movement and where it might be headed next
  • Breakdown of the social contract and the collapse in the government's ability to function and meet entitlements

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally published on October 18, 2015 between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry & Behavioral Science at SUNY Upstate Medical University.

 

 

 

 

 

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Willem MiddelkoopErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Willem Middelkoop to MacroVoices. Erik and Willem discuss:

  • Willem's recent book The Big Reset and the coming monetary reset
  • The role the IMF's SDR will play in the next monetary reset
  • China's strategic objectives and pushing for the use of SDRs as the global reserve currency
  • Outlook for the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status in a Big Reset scenario
  • Outlook for the coming secular commodity reflation cycle
  • Willem's call to buy precious metals and miners in January 2016
  • Gold outlook in the current macroeconomc and geopolitical environment
  • Long-run dynamics of monetary history, demographics, and revolution
  • Whether Western democracy is still viable
  • Alternative forms of government given China's 5000-year history as a civilization
  • Trump vs. Clinton Presidencies and potential market impacts

 

 

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Hugh Hendry HeadshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

  • USD breakout and binary consideration of US economy's condition in a strong-dollar environment
  • Brexit contagion and likelihood of strong vs. weaker countries disbanding from the EU
  • What the German-Italian sovereign spread portends for EU disintegration probabilities
  • Prescriptions for Japan given much greater cultural and political homogeneity
  • Evolution of views on developed market equities
  • The "time stop-loss" and when it's appropriate to pivot theses
  • Global transfer from creditors to debtors via the machinations of QE
  • Opinions on QE's efficacy at avoiding an outright global depression
  • Government's inability or unwillingness to move on fiscal reform and stimulus
  • Where US TSY's are headed next
  • Hugh's response to Kyle Bass' China devaluation thesis
  • Maintaining intellectual honesty in the face of professional ramifications

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on July 1, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Founder of Hayman Capital Management.

 

 

 

 

 

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Robin GriffithsErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Robin Griffiths to MacroVoices. Erik and Robin discuss:

  • Technical and cyclical frameworks for evaluating financial markets
  • Hierarchy of cycles from seasonal variation to generational
  • Central bank intervention and impact across various cycles
  • Potential panicked selloff for the trade-weighted U.S. dollar
  • Outlook for global equities and central bank-induced flash crashes
  • Treasury outlook and relationship with longer-term cycles
  • Developed markets on-going secular decline despite record equity market
  • Emerging market equity outlook, in particular China and India
  • Gold's resistance at $1,400 and ability to shoot back to all-time highs
  • Technological and demogrpahic tailwinds for developed markets
  • Trump vs. Clinton impacts on markets

 

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Yusko With Tie3 2016Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Mark Yusko to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Bearish outlook for and reserve status deterioration of U.S. dollar
  • The "Everything Bubble" and similarities to 2000
  • Central banks running out of rope and credibility
  • Misplaced comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers
  • Rumored Deutsche Bank "white knights" in Qatar and China
  • Political and social implications for foreign ownership of the European banking system
  • Exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce
  • Investment opportunities in other emerging market economics in light of weak dollar thesis
  • Potential longs in the oil and gas space following the supply shock in prices
  • Dangerous paradigm of buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital appreciation
  • Yield-enhancement, short-VIX strategies employed by pension funds
  • Trump vs. Clinton implications for financial markets

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on July 20, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Michael Lewitt, founder of The Credit Strategy Group and writer of The Credit Strategist, a popular and acclaimed investment newsletter.

 

 

 

 

 

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Simon HuntErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Simon Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Internal political wars within China stagnating economic growth
  • China's steady, step-wise approach to allowing firm bankruptcies
  • Shift in global monetary policy power from Washington to Beijing
  • Internal IMF battle for RMB's inclusion in SDR
  • Looming inflation in commodity prices
  • Logic behind China's stockpiling of raw commodities and base metals
  • Strengthening strategic alliance between Russia and China
  • Trump vs. Clinton impacts on financial markets
  • Growing global discontent to USD "bully boy" tactics and de-dollarization
  • Impending global stock market crash and economic reset within the next 5 years
  • Gold's eventual reemergence as the global monetary base

 

 

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Mike Lebowitz 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Michael Lebowitz to MacroVoices. Erik and Michael discuss:

  • The saving discipline that drives the virtuous economic cycle and sustains prosperity
  • A global economy untethered from demographics and productivity
  • End game for the unvirtuous cycle of debt-fueled consumption
  • Outlook for negative interest rate policies
  • Brexit as representative of larger social, geopolitical, and wealth distributional forces
  • Japan outlook given worst-in-class demographics and productivity growth
  • Alternatives for savers throughout the demise of the virtuous cycle
  • Trump v. Clinton impacts on global financial markets

 

 

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on April 14, 2016 with Roy Sebag and Josh Crumb, co-founders of Bitgold, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Strategy Officer of Goldmoney, respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

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Gurevich PhotoErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Market reaction to latest FOMC policy decision
  • Concurrent necessity and dominance of the long U.S. dollar trade
  • Importance of placing current Fed actions in the context of historical rate-hiking cycles
  • Egregiously cheap valuations on 10-year Treasury Notes
  • Where we stand in the current bond bull market
  • Gold's positive risk-reward and return expectations in the coming years
  • Arguments for a long-Nikkei trade
  • Opportunities in USD/JPY
  • China's $30 trillion private debt unwind and history of imperial collapse
  • Migrant and political crises' effects on the future of the Euro
  • Capital market impacts of a Trump or Clinton presidency

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Raoul PalErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • Structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD
  • Outlook for Treasuries given recent sell-off in bonds
  • Update on Raoul's business cycle framework
  • 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies
  • Recent spat of "Billionbears" coming to the forefront with downside calls
  • Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe
  • Crowded risk-parity trades and reasons behind all-time short-VIX open interest
  • Gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations
  • Monetary policy and the Fed's growing irrelevancy
  • Precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector
  • Potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles
  • Updates on new Realvision TV products and initiatives

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on April 4, 2016 between Grant Williams and Michael Schneider, Chief Investment Officer of Brookline Partners.

 

 

 

 

 

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J ChristianErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar predictions and the range-bound outlook
  • Brexit contagion and potential impacts on gold and silver
  • Forward near-term guidane for gold and silver prices
  • Outlooks for macroeconomic drivers of precious metals
  • Economic and financial susceptibility given middling global GDP growth
  • Rejecting old mental models with unprecedentedly low real and nominal interest rates 
  • Excess reserve accumulation backfiring against Fed intentions
  • Continued expected disinflationary and deflationary forces until monetary and/or fiscal policy shifts
  • Low probability of a medium-term moonshot in precious metals prices assuming continued disinflation
  • Billionaire investors going public with bearish economic and market calls
  • Degradation of global political cooperation
  • Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals

 

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories
  • Recent anomalous comparative builds relative to historic trends
  • Continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis
  • The selective capital raising environment for producers
  • Oil market balance and Saudi Arabia's fundamentally ineffectual 'production freeze'
  • Stabilizing US production and evaporation of upside price catalysts
  • Feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production
  • Claims of sub-$40 producers in the Permian basin
  • Concerns over consumption growth not aligning with change in prices
  • Timing for a moonshot in oil prices following a period of supply destruction and investment deficits

 

 

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RealVision TV red 02A conversation on January 5, 2016 between Grant Williams and Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of the worldwide bestseller The Big Reset.

 

 

 

 

 

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AGS 2009 Hi ResolutionErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to MacroVoices. Erik and Gary discuss:

  • The continued perception of the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven currency
  • Why the long-bond trade isn't over and illuminate the forces driving yields lower
  • Reasoning behind going long defensive stocks despite a bearish view on equities
  • Time-horizon for $20 oil
  • The global commodity supply overhang
  • Helicopter money in the form of infrastructure and defense spending
  • The impacts of a Clinton or Trump presidency on markets

 

 

 

 

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DSC06699 2Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Rich equity valuations despite an on-going earnings recession
  • Off-track corporate cash flows and profits as evidence of a weakening economic environment
  • The mainstream misconception and myth that the Fed provides liquidity thereby levitating equity valuations 
  • The chronic and acute dollar shortage as evidenced by the decaying post-2007 global eurodollar system
  • Global central banks resorting to sellng Treasuries as a means to filling dollar funding gaps
  • Milton Friedman's Interest Rate Fallacy and how long-run low interest rates demonstrate tightness of money supply
  • How the tight-dollar environment manifests itself in the increasingly disorderly global repo market
  • The complete disconnect between inferred interest rate bearishness in eurodollar futures and QE as liquidity
  • TED-spread volatility and other wholesale financial measures suggesting central banks might be losing control
  • The Fed's inadequate response to the structural contraction in the global eurodollar system
  • Wholesale eurodollar system not tracking with prior exponential growth and demonstrating permanent monetary disruption
  • How the preponderance of evidence necessitates a systemic reset
  • Why central bankers lack the answers by being married to an incongruent monetary framework
  • The potentially galvanizing catalyst between nations in lieu of a serious crisis

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RealVision TV red 02A conversation on March 21, 2016 between Grant Williams and Paul Brodsky, founder of Macro Allocation Inc. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Paul Brodsky HeadshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Brodsky to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

  • The necessary global reset due to insurmountable leverage
  • Views and outlook for U.S. Treasuries despite obvious sovereign insolvency
  • Signals for exiting the bond market bubble
  • The opacity of currency and monetary issues in Europe
  • Current monetary policy environment as slow-motion "water torture" for the global economy
  • The false deleveraging narrative when viewed in the light of base money
  • The possibility of central banks printing money to buy gold
  • Thinking behind owning gold bullion relative to gold mining shares
  • Oil's role in U.S. Dollar hegemony and likelihood of change
  • Scenarios including disinflation, followed by hyperinflation

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Charles0002 X3Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Charles Biderman to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss:

  • Big picture and current market contexts beginning from Post-WW2
  • Dynamics between developed and emerging market currencies
  • Flight capital impact on U.S. markets
  • Predictions for U.S. Treasury yields
  • Possible catalysts to bring-on the endgame and portfolio allocations
  • Backstory related to sub-advisor relationship with and termination from AdvisorShares
  • TrimTabs' proprietary Float Shrink strategy and outperformance

 

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