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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Views on Zoltan Pozsar’s theory of repo dislocation
  • Perspective on the Fed
  • Is QE4 imminent?
  • Negative yielding sovereign debt - what’s next?
  • Perspectives on the next economic downturn
  • What is on the horizon for the bond market 
  • Consequences of negative yielding debt going to no-bid
  • Outlook on fixed income market

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Jim will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • What’s driving the S&P 500 Christmas Rally and what lies ahead
  • Apple’s outperformance, what it means, and how it relates to the trade war
  • The return of inflation and what it means for markets
  • Gold outlook

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Perspectives on the latest FOMC meeting
  • Is China a part of reflation equation?
  • Perspectives on inflation
  • Will ECB hike or the Fed lower to zero in 2020?
  • Expectations of fiscal responses to macroeconomic challenges
  • Translating the macro views to trading strategies
  • Outlook on US equities 
  • US/China trade deal news driven move in the market – should we take it seriously?
  • Outlook on gold

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here] 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Jeff Snider




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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
  • Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
  • The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Gordon to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Inventory is not what drives the price
  • Hubbert’s peak –regime change from the age of peak oil to the age of abundance
  • Has conventional production reached its peak?
  • Shale oil vs. offshore oil
  • Why “the day of reckoning” will happen soon
  • Electric vehicles – declining sales and outlook going forward
  • Possible impacts the recession will have on oil prices

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Mark will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
  • Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
  • Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
  • China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
  • Canadian Interest Rates
  • Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Electric Vehicles – where is the energy coming from?
  • Is “nuclear renaissance” imminent?
  • What is going to be the mode of power in the future and how will it be delivered
  • Replacing petroleum and what impact it has on geopolitics
  • Changing roles of Russia and China in geopolitics

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
  • Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
  • Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. Erik and Peter discuss:

  • Global macro outlook 
  • Will US get to negative interest rates?
  • The recent back-up in yields - is this a trend reversal or a correction
  • Inevitability of inflation and its effects on central banks
  • Is this the end of the bond bubble?
  • Perspectives on Christine Lagarde, ECB and Brexit
  • Outlook on US/China trade negotiations
  • Fed’s “insurance” cuts– what’s next?
  • Portfolio positioning strategies 
  • Gold-Silver ratio and portfolio allocation in precious metals.

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Update on latest status from Hong Kong
  • The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
  • The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
  • History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
  • Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Perspective on late cycle dynamics
  • Update on the steepener narrative 
  • Cross asset momentum reversal and what is coming next?
  • CTA position estimating model – how does it work?
  • Equity and bond market outlook
  • Significant upside potential in VIX – could it be the next blow-up event?
  • Gold outlook – is it time to buy?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Charlie will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on monetary policy: Monetization by any other time is ok, but call it what it is and you’re a crackpot conspiracy theorist!
  • Market outlook for non-monetization: Gold bull run could pause a little longer, but stocks already heading higher
  • What if the ‘risk off event everyone’s been waiting for’ already happened in the form of the Repo crisis?

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Monetary policy outlook
  • Are central banks using up all their ammunition, leaving themselves vulnerable to the next crisis?
  • Translating Juliette’s macro outlook to actionable trading strategies

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Q4 2019 Macro themes–What is next? 
  • Inflation or stagflation – is time to own gold?
  • What is next for the Chinese economy?
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Equity markets – FOMO vs. deteriorating earnings expectations
  • Perspective on the market melt up
  • Labor share of income and corporate margins
  • Long short pairs trade in software industry

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Civil unrest around the globe: What’s driving it and what does it mean?
  • How technology will contribute to both the problem and its solution
  • Update on President Trump’s post-White House aspirations for a news media empire
  • Why Pippa remains optimistic on global growth and stock prices

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Perspectives on the latest FOMC meeting
  • Treasury market - is it time to go long?
  • Next FOMC meeting forecast
  • Short term and long term views on Gold - is it time to buy?
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Christine Lagarde and ECB - what's next for Euro currency
  • Outlook on global and US equity markets
  • Perspectives on the Chinese credit expansion

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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The video is intended for ADVANCED investors, and explains how to use the "Long-Short Equity" hedge fund strategy to achieve superior investment returns in your own account.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why Brent was able to see new highs coming for stocks, despite his own reservations about the economy
  • Why Brent expects Christine Lagarde to make a big splash when she takes office as the new ECB chief
  • Gold market update, including why Brent still thinks a deeper correction is coming before Gold moves to new all time highs

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Diego Parrilla to MacroVoices. Erik and Diego discuss:

  • Contrarian investment thesis – the energy world is flat vs. the anti-bubbles
  • Concept of Anti-Bubble
  • Monetary Policies without limits, what’s next?
  • Term premia, credit risk, equity risk and liquidity premia
  • Limits of negative rates
  • Gold, treasuries and insurance
  • Balanced portfolios and portfolio construction

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Diego will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Changing of t Guard: Populism on the rise globally and what it means
  • Brexit: Will it happen and what does it mean for markets?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why “base money” really isn’t base money
  • Fed announcements in perspective
  • What’s really missing: The dealers who used to supply global dollar liquidity

Supporting Materials for Download

What Is Money? Misplaced Focus on Bank Reserves & the Fed 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Stephanie Pomboy to MacroVoices. Erik and Stephanie discuss:

  • Late economic cycle – what’s next?
  • Perspective on the expansion of the FED’s balance sheet
  • Significance of the recent liquidity shock
  • Discretionary spending, revolving credit and retail sales
  • Inventories to sales ratio, outlook on profits
  • Divergence between corporate profits and S&P
  • Outlook for the 4th Quarter 
  • Perspectives on MMT
  • Is it finally time to short junk bond market?
  • Outlook on Gold

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Stephanie will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Download the podcast transcript: [ Click Here ]

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Rick Rule

Strategies for participating in gold equities bull market

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
  • Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
  • Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why the narrative just failed and what it means
  • Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
  • Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
  • Equity and Gold outlooks
  • Hong Kong update

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:

  • Economic and liquidity leading indicators
  • Growth slowdown and risks of a recession
  • US/China trade war and its implications on the markets
  • Translating economic signals into market decisions
  • Impacts of Europe/ECB on global market system
  • Tail hedges and the risks in the market
  • Perspectives on global dollar shortage and the repo market
  • Possibilities of QE in Q4
  • Recent divergence in value and growth
  • Outlook on emerging markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Tian will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Amir Adnani

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
  • Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
  • Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
  • But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
  • Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
  • Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
  • U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Has monetary policy lost its effectiveness
  • Shift in dominance from monetary policy to fiscal policy
  • Political drivers of changes in monetary policy
  • Generational and political gap and its impact on the economy
  • Outlook on equity market
  • Perspectives on the current bond market
  • Outlook on precious metals

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
  • Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
  • Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
  • Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
  • Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
  • Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
  • Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Drivers of the present liquidity crisis
  • Why Juliette predicts that QE4 is coming in Q4, and why she thinks it’s needed
  • Why Juliette thinks the stock market could move much higher when this occurs

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman to MacroVoices. Erik and Harley discuss:

  • MOVE index as a leading economic indicator
  • Reversal in bond yields and what's coming next
  • Corporate buybacks and the divergence of the S&P500 from the global economy
  • Is the US going to follow Europe into negative rates?
  • How the upcoming election may affect both fiscal and monetary policy
  • Possibilities of a bond market crisis and what to expect
  • Perspectives on recent breakout in gold
  • "The Opposite of Bad is Worse" and perspectives on negative rates
  • Buying opportunities in negative rates

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVEnergyWeek17

This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth

  • A new chapter in the Age of Oil: How things will change in the wake of Abqaiq
  • What happens when shale plays out and we need to look for more supply?
  • Debunking the fallacy that Electric Vehicles will bring about the end of the age of oil
  • What to expect in coming weeks and months

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook September 25 2019 

 

 

 

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Big picture: What happened and why it’s important
  • Comparing the writings of Nathan Tankus, Zoltan Poszar and George Seglin as they relate to this event
  • Why Steve doesn’t think the fiat sky is falling, as some in the crypto community have suggested

 

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Repo market mayhem and the Fed’s losing touch with markets
  • Danielle’s reactions to Jeff Snider’s insights on the repo market blow-up
  • Watch the MOVE index, not the stock market, for signs of distress

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - Noise Silencing Policy 

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor  (from All Stars Episode #55 September 11th 2019)

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • How last week’s repo rate blowout fits into the narrative Jeff has been engaging MacroVoices listeners in for weeks
  • Debunking the “It’s just transitory technical factors” explanation offered by Jay Powell
  • Primary dealers are inexplicably hoarding safe-haven assets. We need to ask why?
  • Discussion of what this might mean and what may be coming
  • The significance of underlying systemic funding pressures and what it has already meant to this point. 

Supporting Materials for Download

Funding Pressures - Something Doesn't Seem Right 

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Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reaction to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today’s Hot Topic is Alex Gurevich's follow-up from the Grant Williams interview from September 5th.

  • Alex explains why a dollar rally = gold headwind is an “urban myth”
  • Why Alex likes both trades (long dollar and long gold) but doesn’t see one as a hedge for the other
  • Update on Alex’ expert view on the bond market’s backup in yields

 

 

Note: This will be the last podcast that displays the Download Link and the "Click to Play Now!" player seen below. Instead, in the future, you will only see the mini-player at the top of this article. It has the Download Link and a new Share Link in its upper right corner."

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Perspective on S&P500's divergence from the global economy
  • Scarcity in yields and economic activity
  • Recent dislocation in value & growth index
  • Thoughts on the FOMC statement
  • Outlook on the bond market
  • Outlook on the dollar, gold and silver
  • Geopolitics and US/China trade war
  • Outlook on Canadian economy

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muirmale silhouette

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji and Joe McMonigle

  • What exactly are the facilities at Abquaiq and why are they such an important energy security checkpoint?
  • What exactly happened? Who did it, and is there risk of more attacks?
  • What this means to the future of energy security
  • Impacts on markets – is the price spike over?
  • The U.S. Response – sanctions already announced; will military action follow?
  • Saudi Arabia’s new leadership and their expected response

 

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Can the Fed still save us from a recession?
  • Bond market outlook – has the trend reversed?
  • Geopolitical developments last weekend

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Why Abqaiq has always been a key security vulnerability and why it was targeted
  • Why Pippa doesn’t think the end result will be as bad as the market seems to initially fear
  • Outlook for how this situation could evolve, and how Russia and China may eventually come into the mix
  • Why Pippa remains bullish equity markets

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • What happened last Monday and why it’s an important signal
  • Why the Stock and Bond markets may not be delivering contradicting signals after all
  • Hong Kong update
  • Gold outlook

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend welcomes Bob Coleman to MacroVoices Spotlight. Erik and Bob discuss:

  • Most vaulting services for precious metals are owned and operated by banks or precious metals dealers! Conflicts of interest abound
  • When investor Bob Coleman couldn’t find a private vaulting facility that met his standards of independence, he started his own
  • Allocated, Unallocated and Segregated Storage: Understanding what the bullion banks are selling and where the pitfalls are
  • Private vaulting facilities are not required to collect tax ID numbers (bullion banks are)
  • Insurance and force majeure risks in precious metals storage
  • Getting your metals OUT of the vault when you want them, and what can and has gone wrong with bullion banks

 

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Supporting Materials for Download

Idaho Armored Vaults slide deck 

 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. They discuss:

  • Current US dollar liquidity squeeze
  • Impact of changing Eurodollar markets
  • Understanding the global banking system
  • Do interest rates influence dollar liquidity?
  • What does the Fed do now?
  • China, PBOC and the dollar problem
  • Global dollar liquidity shortage
  • Future changes in global reserve currencies

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Anas Alhajji and Erik discuss:

  • Saudi Arabia Power Shuffle: Why all the recent changes in ministers and what it means to markets
  • Khalid al Falih’s legacy
  • OPEC report summary and outlook for JMMC meeting
  • Russian forecast for $25 oil in 2020
  • John Bolton’s firing and the dramatic drop in oil prices which ensued
  • IEA Forecast (not yet published) and JMMC Outlook

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Danielle explains why the U.S. Labor market isn’t as healthy as Powell’s recent speech would lead us to believe
  • Free sample issue of Danielle’s subscriber letter containing a full description of her arguments
  • Mark Carney’s pitch for a “multi-polar” reserve currency at Jackson Hole

 

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Why China lowered their RRR
  • Implications for markets and the economy
  • Great chart book accompanies interview

 

China RRR Gambit 

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • What to expect from the ECB on Thursday this week
  • Juliette’s detailed prescriptions for fixing monetary policy
  • Juliette’s market outlook

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend  welcomes Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to MacroVoices Spotlight. Erik and Niels discuss:

  • Algorithmic trading: History, and who the players are including Statistical Arbitrage and HFT
  • The Trend Following strategy and its history
  • Richard Dennis’ “Turtles”
  • Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation
  • Performance of trend-following CTAs

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Supporting Materials for Download

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Slide Deck 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Global negative yielding debt
  • US Treasury market and equity market
  • Outlook on MMT and monetary policies
  • Is the inverted yield curve an indicator for recession?
  • Is US stock market recession-proof?
  • Outlook on gold and other precious metals
  • "Unicorn" companies

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why the U.S. Dollar is even stronger than most people realize
  • Gold breakout and what comes next
  • Equity outlook

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Oct 12, 2018: A date few noticed but we all should: The USD “insurance” market effectively went no-offer
  • Why FX-hedged relative yields are so important
  • Consequences of FX-hedged UST yields turning negative
  • Where we stand: 7th, 8th or 9th inning?
  • The mechanics: What should we expect from markets when the Fed is forced to monetize deficits?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. They discuss:

  • Financial repression
  • China and trade war
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Europe, the ECB and Chrstine Lagarde
  • Outlook on Gold
  • What happens next?

 

In Part 1 they discussed:

  • FOMC statement and historic rate cut
  • Are we in a currency war?
  • Risks of a recession in the U.S.
  • Main Street vs. Wall Street
  • How do risk assets react to a new QE?
  • Inflation risks moving forward
  • Modern Monetary Theory

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Erik’s book and recent videos’ central prediction is that the USD will eventually be replaced as global reserve currency by a global digital reserve currency system
  • Steve’s take: Central Bankers often make their boldest moves on their way OUT of office
  • Steve thinks the rest of the world is more than ready for the USD to be displaced by something else as reserve currency
  • Steve & Erik lament about Carney’s reference to Facebook’s Libra as the digital currency system to model a global reserve currency system on

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Jeff explains why banks are willing to pay thru the nose for negative-yielding sovereign debt
  • If sovereign bonds serve as an insurance policy for the banking system, what do they see coming they need to insure against?
  • Why the problem is not really term premia, as Janet Yellen recently suggested
  • Graphs and charts are presented as evidence against the term premia argument
  • Why Gold is up so much despite dollar strength
  • The Long Eurodollar Futures trade and why it’s become so popular lately

Jeff Snider Chartbook 2019 08 26 

Collateral Reserves: What Is Behind Record Low and Negative Yields 

                                                                  Eurodollar University: Diagramming Repo Reserves And Negative Yields

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This two-part series explains the Digital Currency Revolution to Central Bankers, Elected Officials & Government policymakers. The focus is NOT on cryptocurrency, but rather what's coming next, AFTER cryptocurrency. This series explains why all money will be digital within 25 years, and why government has been slow to understand the sea change already in motion.

Part 2 is the "meat" of the series. Part 1 began with the high level political argument for why Digital Currency will change the world. Part 2 goes deep on monetary concepts and distributed ledger technology.

Ironically, my book was released on the same day Christine Lagard fulfilled one of its predictions by publicly calling for CBDCs. The central prediction of this video is that the U.S. Dollar will be replaced by a new digital global reserve currency. Now on the very day that I'm releasing these videos, BOE chief Mark Carney pitched the idea of a digital reserve currency [the central prediction of my book and these videos] at Jackson Hole. The coincidence of both events happening on days I was releasing content is astonishing.

For the record, this was written on July 18th and recorded on July 25th. It's been delayed for graphics editing since then until its release on August 23rd.

male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. They discuss:

  • FOMC statement and historic rate cut
  • Are we in a currency war?
  • Risks of a recession in the U.S.
  • Main Street vs. Wall Street
  • How do risk assets react to a new QE?
  • Inflation risks moving forward
  • Modern Monetary Theory

Coming in Part 2:

  • Financial Repression
  • China and Trade War
  • Europe, the ECB and Christine Lagarde 
  • Outlook on Gold
  • What happens next?

 


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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Big picture macro outlook
  • Why Pippa thinks it’s not as bad as many fear
  • Why pensions will rush in to buy treasuries if China really divests its holdings en masse
  • Why Pippa predicts more Boomers will go back to work in coming years

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Recap of Luke’s viewpoints expressed in prior All-Stars Interviews for context
  • Why USD liquidity squeeze explains apparent disagreement between stock and bond markets
  • Why this is a U.S. Fiscal problem in the making, despite crashing bond yields
  • Luke’s outlook for risk assets

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on Steve’s recession outlook for U.S. in the wake of the yield curve inversion
  • Balance sheet recessions 
  • Are negative interest rates evidence of central bank policy errors?
  • The “wildcard factor”: China

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Is Trump starting a currency war with China?
  • What are the risks of competitive devaluation
  • Is the bond market signaling a bear market?
  • Global demand for dollars driving monetary policy
  • What risks and repercussions MMT poses on the economy
  • Outlook on yields and US treasury market
  • Negative yielding European junk bonds
  • Outlook on gold and its new correlation to the dollar
  • Outlook on emerging markets

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Tracy Shuchart and Joe McMonigle

  • Dr. Anas Alhajji’s perspective on Saudi Arabia policy outlook
  • Joe McMonigle on OPEC production cuts
  • Tracy @Chigrl Shuchart on what’s really driving the market (supply/demand? OPEC? Trade War News?)
  • Supply/Demand outlook
  • Macro Outlook/OPEC Cuts/Saudi Aramco IPO
  • Geopolitical update
  • Timespread update from last week

 

 

 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • History and drivers of the protests in Hong Kong and their implications in financial markets
  • Gold breakout and what comes next
  • Bonds and gold: Safety trade assets are clearly catching a bid!
  • So why hasn’t the S&P 500 taken the hint when other global stock markets clearly have?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why there’s more to the yuan devaluation story that meets the eye (or the mainstream narrative)
  • Comparison to prior devaluations and analysis of true driving forces
  • Why China’s U.S. Treasury holdings are encumbered and selling them doesn have the effects most people assume
  • China’s behind-the-scenes derivatives-based USD “War Chest”
  • Is China really manipulating its currency, and what are the consequences?

Jeff Snider Chartbook August 12 2019 

CNY 7 The Gears Behind the Clockface

The Aid of TIC In Sorting Shorts and Shortages

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) not renewed for first time in 20 years
  • Yet central banks around the world are buying gold hand over fist!
  • Luke’s take on what’s driving this and why it’s so important
  • Fundamental case for gold (review) and is this a good time to buy?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ronald-Peter Stöferle to MacroVoices. Erik and Ronald discuss:

  • Why gold is an important asset to own
  • Correlation between gold and bond yields
  • Brief history of gold
  • Outlook on the bonds and interest rates
  • Global De-dollarization and sovereign gold holdings
  • What does the momentum of recent gold breakout mean?
  • What effect does monetary policy have on gold
  • Correlation between gold and inflation
  • Why inflation will be a concern for 2H19
  • Gold as equity hedge
  • Importance of understanding the stock to flow ratio for gold

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Art Berman reviews highlights from the latest EIA STEO released this week
  • Pat Hemsworth on Crack Spreads Gone Wild & Brent/WTI Collapse
  • Chris Cook on Who’s Manipulating Whom in the formative Currency War
  • Market Mayhem! Trade War and collapsing sentiment analysis
  • Fireworks on the Forward Curve – WTI term structure transformation analysis

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why Brent remains convinced the USD has much higher to go
  • The case for gold, and analysis of recent moves in reaction to the Trump China Tweet
  • U.S. Stock market outlook

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  •  The fed needed to take action in response to tightening global Dollar liquidity squeezing the USD higher, which will cause serious problems if not addressed.
  • They had their chance last week, but blew it!
  • In a rare moment of agreement with Donald Trump, Juliette says Powell should be fired!
  • Great graphs and charts support Juliette’s entire narrative
  • Despite these developments, Juliette believes recent dollar strength is still ultimately unsustainable

Juliette Declercq Chartbook August 5 2019 

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male silhouette.This episode of Hot Topic features Dr. Harald Malmgren & Dr. Pippa Malmgren. They discuss: 

  • Why Hal and Pippa disagree on present economic risk factors
  • Pippa’s experience growing up in a house where your Dad directly advises the President of the United States
  • Hal’s experience as a father, watching his daughter grow up to follow in his footsteps as a Presidential advisor
  • Hal’s feelings as a former senior policy advisor about his granddaughter’s generation being the first in American history predicted to live a lower standard of living than he lived himself
  • Why Pippa questions the veracity of the premise that Generation Z will experience a lower standard of living than their grandparents

 

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All-Star Professor Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Why Steve doesn’t expect a U.S. recession
  • Steve’s economic outlook for the rest of the world
  • Why Steve is concerned about the financial sector
  • Will the secular bond bull market reverse or just plateau at sustained near-zero interest rates?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Outlook on global growth and economy
  • US growth outlook
  • US/China trade negotiations
  • Unemployment rates and recession forecast
  • US equity market and its effects on emerging markets
  • Factors that drove the recent rally and the outlook on the next two quarters
  • US treasury market, the yield curve and the US dollar
  • The decline in the US share of global GDP
  • Outlook on the British Pound and the Hong Kong dollar

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Follow up on FOMCmale silhouette

  • Is this a midcycle adjustment
  • Will the ECB cut in September
  • What is the next move for Powell

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MVEnergyWeek13This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Anas Alhajji on the various proposals on the table for 2020 Election Season
  • Art Berman on whether the popular “cashflow narrative” really explains the sell-off in E&P stocks
  • Tracy Shuchart on the macro backdrop and price outlook
  • EIA’s 8.5mm bbl drawdown doesn’t jibe with increased production and lower exports
  • Form 914 (EIA monthly data for May)
  • Tight oil company valuations with slide deck from Art Berman

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Anomalous behavior of EFF relative to IOER in 2018/19
  • Why the Fed describes IOER as a floor or double-floor BELOW EFF
  • Why it doesn’t work that way in the real world
  • Contrasting Jeff’s views with Luke Gromen’s “balance sheet capacity” argument
  • Why treasuries and other sovereign credits are really balance sheet instruments, not investments
  • Japanese vs. U.S. over-indebtedness and implications

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 30 2019 

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

  • What to expect from this week’s FOMC
  • Will we get a 50bps cut or just 25?
  • Is there a risk that a 25bps cut would disappoint markets and still lead to a big correction?
  • How will the ECB and other central banks react?
  • What’s in store when Christine Lagarde eventually takes the helm of the ECB in November?

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Pippa Malmgren

All-Star Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Iran geopolitical situation – what’s at risk and what comes next?
  • Update to Pippa’s prediction Donald Trump has aspirations of a major media empire after the White House
  • Personal data monetization trends and Facebook’s record $5bn fine for privacy violations

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Peter Warburton to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Warburton discuss:

  • “Blowing Up the Box” – what is the policy box?
  • Factors that affect long term outlook for inflation
  • History of inflation and policy framework
  • Inflation is necessary for successful financial repression
  • What is causing the “policy box” to be redesigned
  • History of inflation targeting and inflation controls
  • Driving factors for inflation expectations
  • Is the recent breakout in gold a sign of inflation?
  • Outlook on next QE
  • Is stagflation imminent?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Dr. Warburton will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Pat Hemsworth on the AMLO administration’s plans for Pemex
  • Chris Cook on geopolitical risk and why the Iranian situation hasn’t blown up oil prices
  • Art Berman on why gas prices haven’t fallen more given recent developments
  • EIA’s 10.8 mm bbl draw, and the market DROPS on the news???
  • Iran situation and why it hasn’t resulted in higher oil prices
  • 2020 Pemex Hedge
  • Under-reporting of Permian Basin Fracking

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • If central banks are powerless to contain deflationary pressures, what are the implications for Pensions?
  • Is it possible to enter recession without first seeing a 2s10s curve inversion?
  • Longer-term outlook for bond yields, esp. U.S. 10yr

 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke says the real reason for the coming rate cut is to enable US private sector financing of government deficits
  • Luke elaborates on his views about balance sheet capacity driving FF>IOER
  • Luke’s expectations for market moves when a debt ceiling increase is confirmed

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • As Danielle explained in her prior interview, the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global growth slowdown.
  • But what about Brent Johnson’s view that a global safety trade could keep the stock market party going a while longer?
  • Danielle’s take on the possibility of President Trump bypassing the Fed and intervening to weaken the dollar through executive action
  • Why we should be thinking about the possibility of #DoubleEasing – both QE and rate cuts at the same time

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Private debt problem and its breaking point
  • Progression of growing debt
  • History of US government debt to GDP ratio
  • History of the US treasury market
  • Cost of low growth and high debt
  • Drivers of inflation- confidence not money supply
  • Why Modern Monetary Theory is flawed
  • Why the current International Monetary System is unstable
  • Jim’s new book “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos”

 


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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Pat Hemsworth on volatility in finished product markets and impacts of last week's hurricane
  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on IEA and other organizations' bearish price forecasts for 2020
  • Joe McMonigle's behind-the-scenes insights after attending the OPEC meeting in Vienna
  • Iran policy news and the abrupt price drop this week
  • Venezuela and whether Chevron's general license will be extended
  • Canadian crude differentials to WTI - what's causing them and how long will it last?

 

 

 

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • How the field of economics lost its way and lost touch with how the real world actually works
  • Several examples of clear disconnects between widely accepted economic theory and real-world actuality
  • Prof. Steve’s book recommendations for those who want an interpretation of Economics that’s a little closer to reality than the mainstream

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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Review of Fed Funds rate and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) – what do they mean and why are they important
  • The theorydescribing how the Fed believed that IOER would effectively cap the Fed Funds rate within their target range
  • Hard data shows the theory doesn’t match actual reality
  • Jeff’s explanation of what’s really going on, and why a shortage of USD liquidity in the global offshore Eurodollar market is what’s really driving the observed behavior of Fed Funds and IOER

 All-Stars Jeff Snider Chartbook July 15 2019 

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IICFund manager Alex Gurevich is in the hot seat this month, pitching his “perfect trade” from 2014 long bonds and short the Euro. Alex explains why he believes this was truly a ‘perfect’ can’t lose trade, then we translate to current markets 

  • Why Alex believes there was no sane reason with any view to have been short the U.S. 10yr Treasury in 2014
  • The perfect trade: Long bonds and short the Euro, and why it worked in 2014
  • Julian and Juliette’s reactions to the trade itself and to the process question of whether ‘perfect trades’ really exist
  • Translating this to today’s markets, why Julian and Alex no longer agree completely on bond market outlook
  • Juliette teases us with a preview of a trade she got WRONG, which we’ll feature in Episode #3

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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • What should we make of crypto currencies suddenly making a come-back? And what about Facebook’s Libra project?
  • Why Julian remains bullish Gold, and his outlook for Silver
  • Why Julian is turning bearish on the USD

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jessefeldermacrovoicepicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Divergence in market breadth
  • Theories on the length of this market cycle
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Divergence in bond market
  • Outlook on bond yields
  • Unwind of institutional risk parity trade
  • Value investing strategy in overpriced market
  • Outlook on Gold & Silver
  • Facebook's Libra and cryptocurrency
  • Wealth inequality dichotomy and surveillance capitalism

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MVEnergyWeek10This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Anas Alhajji on the impact of increased car sales in China on the oil market, and the importance of China generally, including electric busses & vehicles
  • Art Berman on key take-aways from this week’s EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
  • Tracy Shuchart on Iranian uranium enrichment
  • Panel discussion of the big price move—Inventory, Tropical Storm, or both?
  • Security for hire in the Straits of Hormuz
  • Art and Anas debate data interpretation

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVAS Luke

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Everyone was so focused on the Jobs number that they missed the re-widening of Fed Funds over IOER, which is more important according to Luke
  • Luke explains the significance of FF > IOER, what it means, and what the consequences are
  • Luke’s take on the global dollar squeeze thesis we’ve discussed extensively on MacroVoices
  • Why the dollar squeeze doesn’t deter Luke from being bearish on the USD and bullish on risk assets, gold, and Bitcoin
  • Luke’s outlook for how things will play out from here in markets

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BrentJohnsonArticle

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent says he was caught by surprise by the Gold breakout, but he’s still not chasing it
  • Ultimately, Brent thinks Gold will move much higher, but still questions whether this is really the time
  • Brent’s conviction that the USD is headed higher has never been stronger
  • But he also points out that he las long predicted Gold and the Dollar would eventually move higher together, and this may have begun
  • Brent says 4,000+ on the S&P 500 is entirely possible in the next year or two, not because of strong fundamentals but because Brent believes the U.S. Stock market will become the global safety trade benefactor

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MVAllStar LouisVincentGave

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Stock Market at all-time highs, but bond markets are also very high. Is this about foreign capital using U.S. markets as a “safety trade?”
  • Is Deutche Bank’s current distress the new “Lehman Moment” that could indicate coming distress for the entire financial sector?
  • Will Hong Kong real estate crash as a result of China’s aggressive policy moves and Carrie Lam’s Extradition Bill debacle?

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MVAS Pippa

All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • How Trump's "photo ops" have been making waves in the markets
  • Why Facebook's Libra raises fundamental questions about our roles as consumers, investors, and private citizens
  • Why privacy will be "the governance issue of our time"

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JohnNetto HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome John Netto to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • What’s driving this market?
  • Where is gold heading next?
  • Key macro factors driving markets
  • Outlook on fixed income market
  • Risk budget vs. Sharpe ratio
  • Limitations of Sharpe ratio
  • Outlook on the Mexican Peso 
  • How to apply sentiment indicators to investing strategy
  • Trader psychology
  • Macro analysis using Netto numbers

  We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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