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This episode of Hot Topic features Tracy Shuchart. Erik and Tracy discuss:

  • The COVID19 Crisis: Recap on what Erik sees on the horizon (see also full podcast yesterday)
  • What COVID19 demand destruction means for energy markets
  • OPEC+ and Russia: What happened? Are they bluffing or is this really a price war?
  • What does it all mean for U.S. Shale, and is a shale industry bail-out politically tenable in an election year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Outlook: 1 month before USA and all of Europe experience total failure of their healthcare systems (Italy is already there)
  • Review of what led to Wuhan outbreak
  • Why Hong Kong and Singapore were able to get their outbreaks under control
  • Lessons learned from South Korea
  • What went so wrong in Italy and why are USA and all of Europe about to repeat those mistakes?
  • USA – the Land of Denial
  • Market and Economic effects
  • Election dynamics in USA

Supporting Materials for Download

The W.H.O. (Finally!) Declares Coronavirus A "Pandemic" 

Peak Prosperity 

 

 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

  • COVID-19 driving bonds to new all-time highs 
  • What’s contributing to US Dollar breakdown?
  • Why are treasury yields crashing and will it continue?
  • What is the threshold for zero-bound treasury yield?
  • Is it time to short high-yield and what are its risks?
  • Perspectives on possible bail-out for shale oil producers
  • Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the upcoming presidential elections
  • Outlook on gold and gold mining shares
  • FED’s emergency cut – what’s next? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Juliette and Erik discuss:

  • Juliette’s analysis of market risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Understanding why serious complication rate is (economically) more important than case fatality rate or mortality rate
  • Juliette’s guidance on translating these views to actionable trading strategies

 

Supporting Materials for Download

A real macroeconomic plague - MARCH 2020 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Is COVID-19 the catalyst that changed the direction in the market?
  • FED stimulus – how long will this bounce last?
  • How much downside is expected in order to take excess buying out of the market
  • Upside in the market caused by central bank response – what happens next?
  • Will inflation return in the near future and what are its systemic risks
  • Asset allocation strategy to accommodate the return of inflation
  • Current buying opportunities in value investing 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Dollar update: Still in a long-term uptrend despite recent weakness
  • Why Brent would buy stocks hand over fist if we see another 10% sell-off from here
  • Why gold has been weak despite bullish fundamentals, and outlook for precious metals

Supporting Materials for Download

Brent Johnson Chartbook - MacroVoices All-Stars 03 04 2020

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Rebroadcast of Jan 30 interview with Dr. Chris Martenson (covered all major aspects of COVID19 pandemic)
  • New developments in R0, CFR, community testing
  • Analysis of why markets and the general public have still yet to fully come to terms with the extent of the pandemic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

  • 50-Year swap rate in negative territory
  • Why the US treasury bond is no longer an investment and its systemic implications
  • The upcoming daily liquidity crisis and it means for the market
  • Complexity-based systemic risk alerts and tools to manage risks
  • How to translate these concepts into actionable strategies
  • Why is flash-crash is likely to happen
  • Perspectives on economic impacts of COVID-19

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why Jeff’s indicators showed a global slowdown before the Coronavirus story emerged in the news
  • Dollar-positive effects of the global Eurodollar system are in play, independent of the virus story
  • Why dollar strength is a bad thing, not a good thing, and what to expect from here

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 02 26

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This episode of Hot Topic features panelists Jim Bianco, Mike Shedlock, Dr. Ben Hunt & Dr. Chris Martenson. Erik and the panelists discuss:

  • Why a super-spreader driven silent global contagion may have alreadyoccurred
  • Why draconian lockdown measures may be the only effective remedies against #COVID19’s high R0
  • Contrasting views on the range of possible economic and market outcomes from our expert guest panel

 

Supporting Materials for Download

Jim Bianco Slides 02 24 2020 

Mike Shedlock Slides 02 24 2020 

 

 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ralph Delguidice to MacroVoices. Erik and Ralph discuss:

  • What are some knock-on implications of the US Treasury bond?
  • Difference between Government money market funds vs. Prime money market funds
  • Why treasury and investment grade bond demand flows will remain solid
  • Declining German bunds in circulation
  • The growing USD funding gap
  • What are LCRs and why are they falling?
  • The US treasury demand impact of Dodd Frank
  • Knock-on implications as treasuries no longer being suitable as investments
  • What are the implications of systemic risks?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Ralph will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why this story has gotten little attention since first breaking in September 2019
  • Why Luke thinks the U.S. Government wants higher gold prices, an about-face from prior stance
  • Gold market outlook – why Luke is still bullish Gold, Silver and Bitcoin
  • Economic implications of Coronavirus on global supply chain

 

 

 

 

  

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • 2020 Demand growth
  • How oversold is the price of oil
  • Over-reaction to Coronavirus effect on world oil demand?
  • Flattening term structure in oil
  • Comparing Brent and WTI 12-month spreads
  • C.I. yield curve

 

 Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Art will refer to it throughout this interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muir: Tesla's epic parabolic rise and blow-off top

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why didn’t the August yield curve inversion lead to a recession (so far)?
  • Eurodollar curve inversion started before UST inversion
  • Forward-looking economic outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook MacroVoices 2020 02 04 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Pippa weighs in on the Coronavirus outbreak in China, still sees bull market ahead for risk assets
  • Reactions to Kyle Bass’ allegations that China is mining U.S. genetic mapping data for nefarious purposes
  • Pippa’s U.S. election outlook

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden and Dr. Chris Martenson to MacroVoices. Topics for discussion with Julian include:

  • Does liquidity inflation asset prices
  • Correlations between monetary policy and financial conditions
  • Repo not QE? 
  • Parabolic rise in equities not sustainable

Topics for discussion with Dr. Chris Martenson include:

  • Will nCoV turn out to be worse than the 2003 SARS epidemic?
  • What is Asymptomatic Transmission and R-naught; what are their significances?
  • How should we be thinking about the Case Fatality Rate for nCov?
  • How will nCoV impact the markets?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

Visit the MI2 Partners website

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Julian will refer to it throughout this interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Update on Juliette’s outlook – still cautiously bullish
  • Manufacturing stagnation vs. services outlook
  • Central bank impotence and its impact on markets
  • Juliette’s assessment of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus and its likely impact on markets

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Updated version re-recorded Jan. 28 to incorporate new information learned from our listeners
  • Full analysis of 2019-nCoV (Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak) and its financial market implications
  • Why comparing nCoV to SARS is not the right comparison to make
  • Why nCoV is much harder (arguably impossible) to contain vs. SARS which was relatively easy
  • Why nCoV will involve far more cases than SARS, but hopefully will have a lower fatality rate
  • Implications for GDP, crude oil, and stock market

 

Supporting Materials for Download

Coronavirus Is Worse Than You've Been Told: Scientist Explains 

                                                Transcript of Hot Topic Episode #4 v2 with Erik Townsend 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

  • Why we should expect a credit crisis
  • What countries will be affected by the systemic banking crisis and what are its potential risks
  • What to expect for international capital flows 
  • MMT and “helicopter money”- will it lead to inflation or deflation? 
  • US duration risk – be prepared for the rules to change
  • Implications and ramifications of helicopter money
  • Negative interest rates - what to expect 
  • Outlook on gold
  • How to prepare for runaway inflation
  • Perspectives on US/China trade war 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • The “melt-up” has been driven by five primary macro drivers. All of them will come under pressure in 2020
  • Why Warren Buffet’s underperformance in 2019 is an important market signal
  • Where Louis will invest the chips he takes off the table from the stock market at record highs

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Civil unrest and global social degradation
  • Is inflation the key to the global geopolitical situation?
  • Unicorn companies – collapse of WeWork, is Tesla next?
  • Will MMT eventually lead to runaway inflation and what are its implications
  • Recent rise in gold – is it time to change strategies?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Big Picture Trading Chart Book January 16 2020 

VIDEO: Grant Williams, Marin Katusa, Brent Johnson, Patrick Ceresna, Cal Everett - Big Gold Panel - Silver & Gold Summit 2019 

VRIC 2020 Keynote Presentation by Patrick Ceresna - Promo Code : MACRO100

VRIC Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2020  

Katusa Research Special Offer: 42% off Marin Katusa's Natural Resource Investing Newsletter 

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • “Not QE”, Repo Bailouts & more: Where does it end and why is it necessary to start with?
  • Reconciling improved unemployment reports with Jeff’s criticisms of CB policy
  • Distinguishing R* from true Economic Potential
  • The real causes of slack in the economy and underperformance against economic potential

Supporting Materials for Download

The R-star Fallacy: There Are No Strong Dollars 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Outlook on gold - Is the recent breakout a false alarm?
  • How to manage market view vs. long term strategy
  • Update on Nevsun investment
  • Comparison between individual stock investing vs. GDX, GDXJ performance
  • Private placements and how it works
  • Investing in mCloud
  • Upcoming VRIC – what to expect 

Katusa Research Special Offer: 42% off Marin Katusa's Natural Resource Investing Newsletter 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar review and outlook
  • Why Brent remains long-term bullish on stocks but thinks the market may be overbought at current levels
  • Short vs. long-term outlook for Gold

Supporting Materials for Download

MacroVoices All-Stars #87 Brent Johnson Chartbook - 01 06 2020 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Knowledge doubling curve
  • Collection and monetization of personal data 
  • Ephemeralization- what does it mean and what are its consequences?
  • Rise of E-sports : is there an investment opportunity?
  • Catalysts that will bring central bank dominance over financial markets to an end
  • Privacy and voluntary total surveillance
  • AR: Augmented Reality – how does it work and what are its implications and consequences
  • Generation Z vs. baby boomers and underfunded social security
  • Autonomous vehicles – how will it change the future?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke’s prediction from November 11th: What if the Repo Spike was the “risk off event everyone was waiting for”?
  • Why Luke believes the event already happened and we’ve entered a new era of “Whatever it Takes” for the U.S. Federal Reserve
  • Luke’s outlook for stocks, bonds, precious metals and crypto

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • IEA’s forecast of oil glut in 2020
  • Perspectives on Mark Gordon’s thesis – age of peak oil to age of abundance
  • Unaccounted for oil
  • CoT chart – pick up in open interest, what does that mean?
  • Oil price outlook
  • Comparative inventory system 
  • Strategies for investing in oil
  • Reasons behind increasing DUC’s 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Reviewing how we got here (datapoints from 2017 and 2018 thru 2019)
  • Another terrific chart deck
  • Jeff’s outlook for 2020

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World 2 : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 23 

Anatomy of the US Dollar End Game 

Out Of The Onion Wars, Why Are There Only Losers? 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Views on Zoltan Pozsar’s theory of repo dislocation
  • Perspective on the Fed
  • Is QE4 imminent?
  • Negative yielding sovereign debt - what’s next?
  • Perspectives on the next economic downturn
  • What is on the horizon for the bond market 
  • Consequences of negative yielding debt going to no-bid
  • Outlook on fixed income market

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Jim will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • What’s driving the S&P 500 Christmas Rally and what lies ahead
  • Apple’s outperformance, what it means, and how it relates to the trade war
  • The return of inflation and what it means for markets
  • Gold outlook

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Perspectives on the latest FOMC meeting
  • Is China a part of reflation equation?
  • Perspectives on inflation
  • Will ECB hike or the Fed lower to zero in 2020?
  • Expectations of fiscal responses to macroeconomic challenges
  • Translating the macro views to trading strategies
  • Outlook on US equities 
  • US/China trade deal news driven move in the market – should we take it seriously?
  • Outlook on gold

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here] 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Jeff Snider




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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
  • Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
  • The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Gordon to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Inventory is not what drives the price
  • Hubbert’s peak –regime change from the age of peak oil to the age of abundance
  • Has conventional production reached its peak?
  • Shale oil vs. offshore oil
  • Why “the day of reckoning” will happen soon
  • Electric vehicles – declining sales and outlook going forward
  • Possible impacts the recession will have on oil prices

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Mark will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
  • Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
  • Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
  • China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
  • Canadian Interest Rates
  • Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Electric Vehicles – where is the energy coming from?
  • Is “nuclear renaissance” imminent?
  • What is going to be the mode of power in the future and how will it be delivered
  • Replacing petroleum and what impact it has on geopolitics
  • Changing roles of Russia and China in geopolitics

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
  • Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
  • Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. Erik and Peter discuss:

  • Global macro outlook 
  • Will US get to negative interest rates?
  • The recent back-up in yields - is this a trend reversal or a correction
  • Inevitability of inflation and its effects on central banks
  • Is this the end of the bond bubble?
  • Perspectives on Christine Lagarde, ECB and Brexit
  • Outlook on US/China trade negotiations
  • Fed’s “insurance” cuts– what’s next?
  • Portfolio positioning strategies 
  • Gold-Silver ratio and portfolio allocation in precious metals.

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Update on latest status from Hong Kong
  • The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
  • The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
  • History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
  • Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Perspective on late cycle dynamics
  • Update on the steepener narrative 
  • Cross asset momentum reversal and what is coming next?
  • CTA position estimating model – how does it work?
  • Equity and bond market outlook
  • Significant upside potential in VIX – could it be the next blow-up event?
  • Gold outlook – is it time to buy?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Charlie will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on monetary policy: Monetization by any other time is ok, but call it what it is and you’re a crackpot conspiracy theorist!
  • Market outlook for non-monetization: Gold bull run could pause a little longer, but stocks already heading higher
  • What if the ‘risk off event everyone’s been waiting for’ already happened in the form of the Repo crisis?

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Monetary policy outlook
  • Are central banks using up all their ammunition, leaving themselves vulnerable to the next crisis?
  • Translating Juliette’s macro outlook to actionable trading strategies

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Q4 2019 Macro themes–What is next? 
  • Inflation or stagflation – is time to own gold?
  • What is next for the Chinese economy?
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Equity markets – FOMO vs. deteriorating earnings expectations
  • Perspective on the market melt up
  • Labor share of income and corporate margins
  • Long short pairs trade in software industry

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Civil unrest around the globe: What’s driving it and what does it mean?
  • How technology will contribute to both the problem and its solution
  • Update on President Trump’s post-White House aspirations for a news media empire
  • Why Pippa remains optimistic on global growth and stock prices

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Perspectives on the latest FOMC meeting
  • Treasury market - is it time to go long?
  • Next FOMC meeting forecast
  • Short term and long term views on Gold - is it time to buy?
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Christine Lagarde and ECB - what's next for Euro currency
  • Outlook on global and US equity markets
  • Perspectives on the Chinese credit expansion

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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The video is intended for ADVANCED investors, and explains how to use the "Long-Short Equity" hedge fund strategy to achieve superior investment returns in your own account.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why Brent was able to see new highs coming for stocks, despite his own reservations about the economy
  • Why Brent expects Christine Lagarde to make a big splash when she takes office as the new ECB chief
  • Gold market update, including why Brent still thinks a deeper correction is coming before Gold moves to new all time highs

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Diego Parrilla to MacroVoices. Erik and Diego discuss:

  • Contrarian investment thesis – the energy world is flat vs. the anti-bubbles
  • Concept of Anti-Bubble
  • Monetary Policies without limits, what’s next?
  • Term premia, credit risk, equity risk and liquidity premia
  • Limits of negative rates
  • Gold, treasuries and insurance
  • Balanced portfolios and portfolio construction

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Diego will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Changing of t Guard: Populism on the rise globally and what it means
  • Brexit: Will it happen and what does it mean for markets?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why “base money” really isn’t base money
  • Fed announcements in perspective
  • What’s really missing: The dealers who used to supply global dollar liquidity

Supporting Materials for Download

What Is Money? Misplaced Focus on Bank Reserves & the Fed 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Stephanie Pomboy to MacroVoices. Erik and Stephanie discuss:

  • Late economic cycle – what’s next?
  • Perspective on the expansion of the FED’s balance sheet
  • Significance of the recent liquidity shock
  • Discretionary spending, revolving credit and retail sales
  • Inventories to sales ratio, outlook on profits
  • Divergence between corporate profits and S&P
  • Outlook for the 4th Quarter 
  • Perspectives on MMT
  • Is it finally time to short junk bond market?
  • Outlook on Gold

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Stephanie will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Download the podcast transcript: [ Click Here ]

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Rick Rule

Strategies for participating in gold equities bull market

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
  • Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
  • Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why the narrative just failed and what it means
  • Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
  • Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
  • Equity and Gold outlooks
  • Hong Kong update

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:

  • Economic and liquidity leading indicators
  • Growth slowdown and risks of a recession
  • US/China trade war and its implications on the markets
  • Translating economic signals into market decisions
  • Impacts of Europe/ECB on global market system
  • Tail hedges and the risks in the market
  • Perspectives on global dollar shortage and the repo market
  • Possibilities of QE in Q4
  • Recent divergence in value and growth
  • Outlook on emerging markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Tian will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Amir Adnani

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
  • Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
  • Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
  • But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
  • Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
  • Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
  • U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Has monetary policy lost its effectiveness
  • Shift in dominance from monetary policy to fiscal policy
  • Political drivers of changes in monetary policy
  • Generational and political gap and its impact on the economy
  • Outlook on equity market
  • Perspectives on the current bond market
  • Outlook on precious metals

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
  • Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
  • Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
  • Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
  • Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
  • Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
  • Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Drivers of the present liquidity crisis
  • Why Juliette predicts that QE4 is coming in Q4, and why she thinks it’s needed
  • Why Juliette thinks the stock market could move much higher when this occurs

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman to MacroVoices. Erik and Harley discuss:

  • MOVE index as a leading economic indicator
  • Reversal in bond yields and what's coming next
  • Corporate buybacks and the divergence of the S&P500 from the global economy
  • Is the US going to follow Europe into negative rates?
  • How the upcoming election may affect both fiscal and monetary policy
  • Possibilities of a bond market crisis and what to expect
  • Perspectives on recent breakout in gold
  • "The Opposite of Bad is Worse" and perspectives on negative rates
  • Buying opportunities in negative rates

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVEnergyWeek17

This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth

  • A new chapter in the Age of Oil: How things will change in the wake of Abqaiq
  • What happens when shale plays out and we need to look for more supply?
  • Debunking the fallacy that Electric Vehicles will bring about the end of the age of oil
  • What to expect in coming weeks and months

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook September 25 2019 

 

 

 

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Big picture: What happened and why it’s important
  • Comparing the writings of Nathan Tankus, Zoltan Poszar and George Seglin as they relate to this event
  • Why Steve doesn’t think the fiat sky is falling, as some in the crypto community have suggested

 

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Repo market mayhem and the Fed’s losing touch with markets
  • Danielle’s reactions to Jeff Snider’s insights on the repo market blow-up
  • Watch the MOVE index, not the stock market, for signs of distress

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - Noise Silencing Policy 

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor  (from All Stars Episode #55 September 11th 2019)

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • How last week’s repo rate blowout fits into the narrative Jeff has been engaging MacroVoices listeners in for weeks
  • Debunking the “It’s just transitory technical factors” explanation offered by Jay Powell
  • Primary dealers are inexplicably hoarding safe-haven assets. We need to ask why?
  • Discussion of what this might mean and what may be coming
  • The significance of underlying systemic funding pressures and what it has already meant to this point. 

Supporting Materials for Download

Funding Pressures - Something Doesn't Seem Right 

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Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reaction to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today’s Hot Topic is Alex Gurevich's follow-up from the Grant Williams interview from September 5th.

  • Alex explains why a dollar rally = gold headwind is an “urban myth”
  • Why Alex likes both trades (long dollar and long gold) but doesn’t see one as a hedge for the other
  • Update on Alex’ expert view on the bond market’s backup in yields

 

 

Note: This will be the last podcast that displays the Download Link and the "Click to Play Now!" player seen below. Instead, in the future, you will only see the mini-player at the top of this article. It has the Download Link and a new Share Link in its upper right corner."

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Perspective on S&P500's divergence from the global economy
  • Scarcity in yields and economic activity
  • Recent dislocation in value & growth index
  • Thoughts on the FOMC statement
  • Outlook on the bond market
  • Outlook on the dollar, gold and silver
  • Geopolitics and US/China trade war
  • Outlook on Canadian economy

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muirmale silhouette

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji and Joe McMonigle

  • What exactly are the facilities at Abquaiq and why are they such an important energy security checkpoint?
  • What exactly happened? Who did it, and is there risk of more attacks?
  • What this means to the future of energy security
  • Impacts on markets – is the price spike over?
  • The U.S. Response – sanctions already announced; will military action follow?
  • Saudi Arabia’s new leadership and their expected response

 

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Can the Fed still save us from a recession?
  • Bond market outlook – has the trend reversed?
  • Geopolitical developments last weekend

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Why Abqaiq has always been a key security vulnerability and why it was targeted
  • Why Pippa doesn’t think the end result will be as bad as the market seems to initially fear
  • Outlook for how this situation could evolve, and how Russia and China may eventually come into the mix
  • Why Pippa remains bullish equity markets

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • What happened last Monday and why it’s an important signal
  • Why the Stock and Bond markets may not be delivering contradicting signals after all
  • Hong Kong update
  • Gold outlook

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend welcomes Bob Coleman to MacroVoices Spotlight. Erik and Bob discuss:

  • Most vaulting services for precious metals are owned and operated by banks or precious metals dealers! Conflicts of interest abound
  • When investor Bob Coleman couldn’t find a private vaulting facility that met his standards of independence, he started his own
  • Allocated, Unallocated and Segregated Storage: Understanding what the bullion banks are selling and where the pitfalls are
  • Private vaulting facilities are not required to collect tax ID numbers (bullion banks are)
  • Insurance and force majeure risks in precious metals storage
  • Getting your metals OUT of the vault when you want them, and what can and has gone wrong with bullion banks

 

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Supporting Materials for Download

Idaho Armored Vaults slide deck 

 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. They discuss:

  • Current US dollar liquidity squeeze
  • Impact of changing Eurodollar markets
  • Understanding the global banking system
  • Do interest rates influence dollar liquidity?
  • What does the Fed do now?
  • China, PBOC and the dollar problem
  • Global dollar liquidity shortage
  • Future changes in global reserve currencies

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Anas Alhajji and Erik discuss:

  • Saudi Arabia Power Shuffle: Why all the recent changes in ministers and what it means to markets
  • Khalid al Falih’s legacy
  • OPEC report summary and outlook for JMMC meeting
  • Russian forecast for $25 oil in 2020
  • John Bolton’s firing and the dramatic drop in oil prices which ensued
  • IEA Forecast (not yet published) and JMMC Outlook

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Danielle explains why the U.S. Labor market isn’t as healthy as Powell’s recent speech would lead us to believe
  • Free sample issue of Danielle’s subscriber letter containing a full description of her arguments
  • Mark Carney’s pitch for a “multi-polar” reserve currency at Jackson Hole

 

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Why China lowered their RRR
  • Implications for markets and the economy
  • Great chart book accompanies interview

 

China RRR Gambit 

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • What to expect from the ECB on Thursday this week
  • Juliette’s detailed prescriptions for fixing monetary policy
  • Juliette’s market outlook

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend  welcomes Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to MacroVoices Spotlight. Erik and Niels discuss:

  • Algorithmic trading: History, and who the players are including Statistical Arbitrage and HFT
  • The Trend Following strategy and its history
  • Richard Dennis’ “Turtles”
  • Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation
  • Performance of trend-following CTAs

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Niels will refer to it throughout the interview.

Supporting Materials for Download

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Slide Deck 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Global negative yielding debt
  • US Treasury market and equity market
  • Outlook on MMT and monetary policies
  • Is the inverted yield curve an indicator for recession?
  • Is US stock market recession-proof?
  • Outlook on gold and other precious metals
  • "Unicorn" companies

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why the U.S. Dollar is even stronger than most people realize
  • Gold breakout and what comes next
  • Equity outlook

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Oct 12, 2018: A date few noticed but we all should: The USD “insurance” market effectively went no-offer
  • Why FX-hedged relative yields are so important
  • Consequences of FX-hedged UST yields turning negative
  • Where we stand: 7th, 8th or 9th inning?
  • The mechanics: What should we expect from markets when the Fed is forced to monetize deficits?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. They discuss:

  • Financial repression
  • China and trade war
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Europe, the ECB and Chrstine Lagarde
  • Outlook on Gold
  • What happens next?

 

In Part 1 they discussed:

  • FOMC statement and historic rate cut
  • Are we in a currency war?
  • Risks of a recession in the U.S.
  • Main Street vs. Wall Street
  • How do risk assets react to a new QE?
  • Inflation risks moving forward
  • Modern Monetary Theory

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Erik’s book and recent videos’ central prediction is that the USD will eventually be replaced as global reserve currency by a global digital reserve currency system
  • Steve’s take: Central Bankers often make their boldest moves on their way OUT of office
  • Steve thinks the rest of the world is more than ready for the USD to be displaced by something else as reserve currency
  • Steve & Erik lament about Carney’s reference to Facebook’s Libra as the digital currency system to model a global reserve currency system on

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Jeff explains why banks are willing to pay thru the nose for negative-yielding sovereign debt
  • If sovereign bonds serve as an insurance policy for the banking system, what do they see coming they need to insure against?
  • Why the problem is not really term premia, as Janet Yellen recently suggested
  • Graphs and charts are presented as evidence against the term premia argument
  • Why Gold is up so much despite dollar strength
  • The Long Eurodollar Futures trade and why it’s become so popular lately

Jeff Snider Chartbook 2019 08 26 

Collateral Reserves: What Is Behind Record Low and Negative Yields 

                                                                  Eurodollar University: Diagramming Repo Reserves And Negative Yields

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This two-part series explains the Digital Currency Revolution to Central Bankers, Elected Officials & Government policymakers. The focus is NOT on cryptocurrency, but rather what's coming next, AFTER cryptocurrency. This series explains why all money will be digital within 25 years, and why government has been slow to understand the sea change already in motion.

Part 2 is the "meat" of the series. Part 1 began with the high level political argument for why Digital Currency will change the world. Part 2 goes deep on monetary concepts and distributed ledger technology.

Ironically, my book was released on the same day Christine Lagard fulfilled one of its predictions by publicly calling for CBDCs. The central prediction of this video is that the U.S. Dollar will be replaced by a new digital global reserve currency. Now on the very day that I'm releasing these videos, BOE chief Mark Carney pitched the idea of a digital reserve currency [the central prediction of my book and these videos] at Jackson Hole. The coincidence of both events happening on days I was releasing content is astonishing.

For the record, this was written on July 18th and recorded on July 25th. It's been delayed for graphics editing since then until its release on August 23rd.

male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. They discuss:

  • FOMC statement and historic rate cut
  • Are we in a currency war?
  • Risks of a recession in the U.S.
  • Main Street vs. Wall Street
  • How do risk assets react to a new QE?
  • Inflation risks moving forward
  • Modern Monetary Theory

Coming in Part 2:

  • Financial Repression
  • China and Trade War
  • Europe, the ECB and Christine Lagarde 
  • Outlook on Gold
  • What happens next?

 


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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Big picture macro outlook
  • Why Pippa thinks it’s not as bad as many fear
  • Why pensions will rush in to buy treasuries if China really divests its holdings en masse
  • Why Pippa predicts more Boomers will go back to work in coming years

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Recap of Luke’s viewpoints expressed in prior All-Stars Interviews for context
  • Why USD liquidity squeeze explains apparent disagreement between stock and bond markets
  • Why this is a U.S. Fiscal problem in the making, despite crashing bond yields
  • Luke’s outlook for risk assets

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on Steve’s recession outlook for U.S. in the wake of the yield curve inversion
  • Balance sheet recessions 
  • Are negative interest rates evidence of central bank policy errors?
  • The “wildcard factor”: China

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Is Trump starting a currency war with China?
  • What are the risks of competitive devaluation
  • Is the bond market signaling a bear market?
  • Global demand for dollars driving monetary policy
  • What risks and repercussions MMT poses on the economy
  • Outlook on yields and US treasury market
  • Negative yielding European junk bonds
  • Outlook on gold and its new correlation to the dollar
  • Outlook on emerging markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Tracy Shuchart and Joe McMonigle

  • Dr. Anas Alhajji’s perspective on Saudi Arabia policy outlook
  • Joe McMonigle on OPEC production cuts
  • Tracy @Chigrl Shuchart on what’s really driving the market (supply/demand? OPEC? Trade War News?)
  • Supply/Demand outlook
  • Macro Outlook/OPEC Cuts/Saudi Aramco IPO
  • Geopolitical update
  • Timespread update from last week

 

 

 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • History and drivers of the protests in Hong Kong and their implications in financial markets
  • Gold breakout and what comes next
  • Bonds and gold: Safety trade assets are clearly catching a bid!
  • So why hasn’t the S&P 500 taken the hint when other global stock markets clearly have?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why there’s more to the yuan devaluation story that meets the eye (or the mainstream narrative)
  • Comparison to prior devaluations and analysis of true driving forces
  • Why China’s U.S. Treasury holdings are encumbered and selling them doesn have the effects most people assume
  • China’s behind-the-scenes derivatives-based USD “War Chest”
  • Is China really manipulating its currency, and what are the consequences?

Jeff Snider Chartbook August 12 2019 

CNY 7 The Gears Behind the Clockface

The Aid of TIC In Sorting Shorts and Shortages

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) not renewed for first time in 20 years
  • Yet central banks around the world are buying gold hand over fist!
  • Luke’s take on what’s driving this and why it’s so important
  • Fundamental case for gold (review) and is this a good time to buy?

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ronald-Peter Stöferle to MacroVoices. Erik and Ronald discuss:

  • Why gold is an important asset to own
  • Correlation between gold and bond yields
  • Brief history of gold
  • Outlook on the bonds and interest rates
  • Global De-dollarization and sovereign gold holdings
  • What does the momentum of recent gold breakout mean?
  • What effect does monetary policy have on gold
  • Correlation between gold and inflation
  • Why inflation will be a concern for 2H19
  • Gold as equity hedge
  • Importance of understanding the stock to flow ratio for gold

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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