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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Why the narrative just failed and what it means
Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
Equity and Gold outlooks
Hong Kong update

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:

Economic and liquidity leading indicators
Growth slowdown and risks of a recession
US/China trade war and its implications on the markets
Translating economic signals into market decisions
Impacts of Europe/ECB on global market system
Tail hedges and the risks in the market
Perspectives on global dollar shortage and the repo market
Possibilities of QE in Q4
Recent divergence in value and growth
Outlook on emerging markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Tian will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Amir Adnani

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

Has monetary policy lost its effectiveness
Shift in dominance from monetary policy to fiscal policy
Political drivers of changes in monetary policy
Generational and political gap and its impact on the economy
Outlook on equity market
Perspectives on the current bond market
Outlook on precious metals

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

Drivers of the present liquidity crisis
Why Juliette predicts that QE4 is coming in Q4, and why she thinks it’s needed
Why Juliette thinks the stock market could move much higher when this occurs

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman to MacroVoices. Erik and Harley discuss:

MOVE index as a leading economic indicator
Reversal in bond yields and what's coming next
Corporate buybacks and the divergence of the S&P500 from the global economy
Is the US going to follow Europe into negative rates?
How the upcoming election may affect both fiscal and monetary policy
Possibilities of a bond market crisis and what to expect
Perspectives on recent breakout in gold
"The Opposite of Bad is Worse" and perspectives on negative rates
Buying opportunities in negative rates

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth

A new chapter in the Age of Oil: How things will change in the wake of Abqaiq
What happens when shale plays out and we need to look for more supply?
Debunking the fallacy that Electric Vehicles will bring about the end of the age of oil
What to expect in coming weeks and months

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook September 25 2019

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

Big picture: What happened and why it’s important
Comparing the writings of Nathan Tankus, Zoltan Poszar and George Seglin as they relate to this event
Why Steve doesn’t think the fiat sky is falling, as some in the crypto community have suggested

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

Repo market mayhem and the Fed’s losing touch with markets
Danielle’s reactions to Jeff Snider’s insights on the repo market blow-up
Watch the MOVE index, not the stock market, for signs of distress

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - Noise Silencing Policy

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor (from All Stars Episode #55 September 11th 2019)

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

How last week’s repo rate blowout fits into the narrative Jeff has been engaging MacroVoices listeners in for weeks
Debunking the “It’s just transitory technical factors” explanation offered by Jay Powell
Primary dealers are inexplicably hoarding safe-haven assets. We need to ask why?
Discussion of what this might mean and what may be coming
The significance of underlying systemic funding pressures and what it has already meant to this point.

Supporting Materials for Download

Funding Pressures - Something Doesn't Seem Right

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Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reaction to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today’s Hot Topic is Alex Gurevich's follow-up from the Grant Williams interview from September 5th.

Alex explains why a dollar rally = gold headwind is an “urban myth”
Why Alex likes both trades (long dollar and long gold) but doesn’t see one as a hedge for the other
Update on Alex’ expert view on the bond market’s backup in yields

Note: This will be the last podcast that displays the Download Link and the "Click to Play Now!" player seen below. Instead, in the future, you will only see the mini-player at the top of this article. It has the Download Link and a new Share Link in its upper right corner."

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

Perspective on S&P500's divergence from the global economy
Scarcity in yields and economic activity
Recent dislocation in value & growth index
Thoughts on the FOMC statement
Outlook on the bond market
Outlook on the dollar, gold and silver
Geopolitics and US/China trade war
Outlook on Canadian economy

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muir

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MVEnergyWeek6 This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji and Joe McMonigle

What exactly are the facilities at Abquaiq and why are they such an important energy security checkpoint?
What exactly happened? Who did it, and is there risk of more attacks?
What this means to the future of energy security
Impacts on markets – is the price spike over?
The U.S. Response – sanctions already announced; will military action follow?
Saudi Arabia’s new leadership and their expected response

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

Can the Fed still save us from a recession?
Bond market outlook – has the trend reversed?
Geopolitical developments last weekend

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

Why Abqaiq has always been a key security vulnerability and why it was targeted
Why Pippa doesn’t think the end result will be as bad as the market seems to initially fear
Outlook for how this situation could evolve, and how Russia and China may eventually come into the mix
Why Pippa remains bullish equity markets

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

What happened last Monday and why it’s an important signal
Why the Stock and Bond markets may not be delivering contradicting signals after all
Hong Kong update
Gold outlook

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend welcomes Bob Coleman to MacroVoices Spotlight. Erik and Bob discuss:

Most vaulting services for precious metals are owned and operated by banks or precious metals dealers! Conflicts of interest abound
When investor Bob Coleman couldn’t find a private vaulting facility that met his standards of independence, he started his own
Allocated, Unallocated and Segregated Storage: Understanding what the bullion banks are selling and where the pitfalls are
Private vaulting facilities are not required to collect tax ID numbers (bullion banks are)
Insurance and force majeure risks in precious metals storage
Getting your metals OUT of the vault when you want them, and what can and has gone wrong with bullion banks

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Supporting Materials for Download

Idaho Armored Vaults slide deck

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. They discuss:

Current US dollar liquidity squeeze
Impact of changing Eurodollar markets
Understanding the global banking system
Do interest rates influence dollar liquidity?
What does the Fed do now?
China, PBOC and the dollar problem
Global dollar liquidity shortage
Future changes in global reserve currencies

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Dr. Anas Alhajji and Erik discuss:

Saudi Arabia Power Shuffle: Why all the recent changes in ministers and what it means to markets
Khalid al Falih’s legacy
OPEC report summary and outlook for JMMC meeting
Russian forecast for $25 oil in 2020
John Bolton’s firing and the dramatic drop in oil prices which ensued
IEA Forecast (not yet published) and JMMC Outlook

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

Danielle explains why the U.S. Labor market isn’t as healthy as Powell’s recent speech would lead us to believe
Free sample issue of Danielle’s subscriber letter containing a full description of her arguments
Mark Carney’s pitch for a “multi-polar” reserve currency at Jackson Hole

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

Why China lowered their RRR
Implications for markets and the economy
Great chart book accompanies interview

China RRR Gambit

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

What to expect from the ECB on Thursday this week
Juliette’s detailed prescriptions for fixing monetary policy
Juliette’s market outlook

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend welcomes Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to MacroVoices Spotlight. Erik and Niels discuss:

Algorithmic trading: History, and who the players are including Statistical Arbitrage and HFT
The Trend Following strategy and its history
Richard Dennis’ “Turtles”
Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation
Performance of trend-following CTAs

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Niels will refer to it throughout the interview.

Supporting Materials for Download

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Slide Deck

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

Global negative yielding debt
US Treasury market and equity market
Outlook on MMT and monetary policies
Is the inverted yield curve an indicator for recession?
Is US stock market recession-proof?
Outlook on gold and other precious metals
"Unicorn" companies

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

Why the U.S. Dollar is even stronger than most people realize
Gold breakout and what comes next
Equity outlook

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Oct 12, 2018: A date few noticed but we all should: The USD “insurance” market effectively went no-offer
Why FX-hedged relative yields are so important
Consequences of FX-hedged UST yields turning negative
Where we stand: 7^th, 8^th or 9^th inning?
The mechanics: What should we expect from markets when the Fed is forced to monetize deficits?

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. They discuss:

Financial repression
China and trade war
Outlook on US dollar
Europe, the ECB and Chrstine Lagarde
Outlook on Gold
What happens next?

In Part 1 they discussed:

FOMC statement and historic rate cut
Are we in a currency war?
Risks of a recession in the U.S.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
How do risk assets react to a new QE?
Inflation risks moving forward
Modern Monetary Theory

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

Erik’s book and recent videos’ central prediction is that the USD will eventually be replaced as global reserve currency by a global digital reserve currency system
Steve’s take: Central Bankers often make their boldest moves on their way OUT of office
Steve thinks the rest of the world is more than ready for the USD to be displaced by something else as reserve currency
Steve & Erik lament about Carney’s reference to Facebook’s Libra as the digital currency system to model a global reserve currency system on

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

Jeff explains why banks are willing to pay thru the nose for negative-yielding sovereign debt
If sovereign bonds serve as an insurance policy for the banking system, what do they see coming they need to insure against?
Why the problem is not really term premia, as Janet Yellen recently suggested
Graphs and charts are presented as evidence against the term premia argument
Why Gold is up so much despite dollar strength
The Long Eurodollar Futures trade and why it’s become so popular lately

Jeff Snider Chartbook 2019 08 26

Collateral Reserves: What Is Behind Record Low and Negative Yields

Eurodollar University: Diagramming Repo Reserves And Negative Yields

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This two-part series explains the Digital Currency Revolution to Central Bankers, Elected Officials & Government policymakers. The focus is NOT on cryptocurrency, but rather what's coming next, AFTER cryptocurrency. This series explains why all money will be digital within 25 years, and why government has been slow to understand the sea change already in motion.

Part 2 is the "meat" of the series. Part 1 began with the high level political argument for why Digital Currency will change the world. Part 2 goes deep on monetary concepts and distributed ledger technology.

Ironically, my book was released on the same day Christine Lagard fulfilled one of its predictions by publicly calling for CBDCs. The central prediction of this video is that the U.S. Dollar will be replaced by a new digital global reserve currency. Now on the very day that I'm releasing these videos, BOE chief Mark Carney pitched the idea of a digital reserve currency [the central prediction of my book and these videos] at Jackson Hole. The coincidence of both events happening on days I was releasing content is astonishing.

For the record, this was written on July 18th and recorded on July 25th. It's been delayed for graphics editing since then until its release on August 23rd.

male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. They discuss:

FOMC statement and historic rate cut
Are we in a currency war?
Risks of a recession in the U.S.
Main Street vs. Wall Street
How do risk assets react to a new QE?
Inflation risks moving forward
Modern Monetary Theory

Coming in Part 2:

Financial Repression
China and Trade War
Europe, the ECB and Christine Lagarde
Outlook on Gold
What happens next?

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

Big picture macro outlook
Why Pippa thinks it’s not as bad as many fear
Why pensions will rush in to buy treasuries if China really divests its holdings en masse
Why Pippa predicts more Boomers will go back to work in coming years

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Recap of Luke’s viewpoints expressed in prior All-Stars Interviews for context
Why USD liquidity squeeze explains apparent disagreement between stock and bond markets
Why this is a U.S. Fiscal problem in the making, despite crashing bond yields
Luke’s outlook for risk assets

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

Update on Steve’s recession outlook for U.S. in the wake of the yield curve inversion
Balance sheet recessions
Are negative interest rates evidence of central bank policy errors?
The “wildcard factor”: China

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

Is Trump starting a currency war with China?
What are the risks of competitive devaluation
Is the bond market signaling a bear market?
Global demand for dollars driving monetary policy
What risks and repercussions MMT poses on the economy
Outlook on yields and US treasury market
Negative yielding European junk bonds
Outlook on gold and its new correlation to the dollar
Outlook on emerging markets

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MVEnergyWeek6 This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Tracy Shuchart and Joe McMonigle

Dr. Anas Alhajji’s perspective on Saudi Arabia policy outlook
Joe McMonigle on OPEC production cuts
Tracy @Chigrl Shuchart on what’s really driving the market (supply/demand? OPEC? Trade War News?)
Supply/Demand outlook
Macro Outlook/OPEC Cuts/Saudi Aramco IPO
Geopolitical update
Timespread update from last week

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

History and drivers of the protests in Hong Kong and their implications in financial markets
Gold breakout and what comes next
Bonds and gold: Safety trade assets are clearly catching a bid!
So why hasn’t the S&P 500 taken the hint when other global stock markets clearly have?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

Why there’s more to the yuan devaluation story that meets the eye (or the mainstream narrative)
Comparison to prior devaluations and analysis of true driving forces
Why China’s U.S. Treasury holdings are encumbered and selling them doesn have the effects most people assume
China’s behind-the-scenes derivatives-based USD “War Chest”
Is China really manipulating its currency, and what are the consequences?

Jeff Snider Chartbook August 12 2019

CNY 7 The Gears Behind the Clockface

The Aid of TIC In Sorting Shorts and Shortages

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) not renewed for first time in 20 years
Yet central banks around the world are buying gold hand over fist!
Luke’s take on what’s driving this and why it’s so important
Fundamental case for gold (review) and is this a good time to buy?

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ronald-Peter Stöferle to MacroVoices. Erik and Ronald discuss:

Why gold is an important asset to own
Correlation between gold and bond yields
Brief history of gold
Outlook on the bonds and interest rates
Global De-dollarization and sovereign gold holdings
What does the momentum of recent gold breakout mean?
What effect does monetary policy have on gold
Correlation between gold and inflation
Why inflation will be a concern for 2H19
Gold as equity hedge
Importance of understanding the stock to flow ratio for gold

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MVEnergyWeek6 This week’s panel: Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth

Art Berman reviews highlights from the latest EIA STEO released this week
Pat Hemsworth on Crack Spreads Gone Wild & Brent/WTI Collapse
Chris Cook on Who’s Manipulating Whom in the formative Currency War
Market Mayhem! Trade War and collapsing sentiment analysis
Fireworks on the Forward Curve – WTI term structure transformation analysis

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

Why Brent remains convinced the USD has much higher to go
The case for gold, and analysis of recent moves in reaction to the Trump China Tweet
U.S. Stock market outlook

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

The fed needed to take action in response to tightening global Dollar liquidity squeezing the USD higher, which will cause serious problems if not addressed.
They had their chance last week, but blew it!
In a rare moment of agreement with Donald Trump, Juliette says Powell should be fired!
Great graphs and charts support Juliette’s entire narrative
Despite these developments, Juliette believes recent dollar strength is still ultimately unsustainable

Juliette Declercq Chartbook August 5 2019

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male silhouette. This episode of Hot Topic features Dr. Harald Malmgren & Dr. Pippa Malmgren. They discuss:

Why Hal and Pippa disagree on present economic risk factors
Pippa’s experience growing up in a house where your Dad directly advises the President of the United States
Hal’s experience as a father, watching his daughter grow up to follow in his footsteps as a Presidential advisor
Hal’s feelings as a former senior policy advisor about his granddaughter’s generation being the first in American history predicted to live a lower standard of living than he lived himself
Why Pippa questions the veracity of the premise that Generation Z will experience a lower standard of living than their grandparents

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All-Star Professor Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

Why Steve doesn’t expect a U.S. recession
Steve’s economic outlook for the rest of the world
Why Steve is concerned about the financial sector
Will the secular bond bull market reverse or just plateau at sustained near-zero interest rates?

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

Outlook on global growth and economy
US growth outlook
US/China trade negotiations
Unemployment rates and recession forecast
US equity market and its effects on emerging markets
Factors that drove the recent rally and the outlook on the next two quarters
US treasury market, the yield curve and the US dollar
The decline in the US share of global GDP
Outlook on the British Pound and the Hong Kong dollar

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Follow up on FOMC

Is this a midcycle adjustment
Will the ECB cut in September
What is the next move for Powell

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MVEnergyWeek13 This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

Anas Alhajji on the various proposals on the table for 2020 Election Season
Art Berman on whether the popular “cashflow narrative” really explains the sell-off in E&P stocks
Tracy Shuchart on the macro backdrop and price outlook
EIA’s 8.5mm bbl drawdown doesn’t jibe with increased production and lower exports
Form 914 (EIA monthly data for May)
Tight oil company valuations with slide deck from Art Berman

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

Anomalous behavior of EFF relative to IOER in 2018/19
Why the Fed describes IOER as a floor or double-floor BELOW EFF
Why it doesn’t work that way in the real world
Contrasting Jeff’s views with Luke Gromen’s “balance sheet capacity” argument
Why treasuries and other sovereign credits are really balance sheet instruments, not investments
Japanese vs. U.S. over-indebtedness and implications

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 30 2019

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

What to expect from this week’s FOMC
Will we get a 50bps cut or just 25?
Is there a risk that a 25bps cut would disappoint markets and still lead to a big correction?
How will the ECB and other central banks react?
What’s in store when Christine Lagarde eventually takes the helm of the ECB in November?

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Pippa Malmgren

All-Star Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

Iran geopolitical situation – what’s at risk and what comes next?
Update to Pippa’s prediction Donald Trump has aspirations of a major media empire after the White House
Personal data monetization trends and Facebook’s record $5bn fine for privacy violations

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Peter Warburton to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Warburton discuss:

“Blowing Up the Box” – what is the policy box?
Factors that affect long term outlook for inflation
History of inflation and policy framework
Inflation is necessary for successful financial repression
What is causing the “policy box” to be redesigned
History of inflation targeting and inflation controls
Driving factors for inflation expectations
Is the recent breakout in gold a sign of inflation?
Outlook on next QE
Is stagflation imminent?

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MVEnergyWeek6 This week’s panel: Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth

Pat Hemsworth on the AMLO administration’s plans for Pemex
Chris Cook on geopolitical risk and why the Iranian situation hasn’t blown up oil prices
Art Berman on why gas prices haven’t fallen more given recent developments
EIA’s 10.8 mm bbl draw, and the market DROPS on the news???
Iran situation and why it hasn’t resulted in higher oil prices
2020 Pemex Hedge
Under-reporting of Permian Basin Fracking

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

If central banks are powerless to contain deflationary pressures, what are the implications for Pensions?
Is it possible to enter recession without first seeing a 2s10s curve inversion?
Longer-term outlook for bond yields, esp. U.S. 10yr

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Luke says the real reason for the coming rate cut is to enable US private sector financing of government deficits
Luke elaborates on his views about balance sheet capacity driving FF>IOER
Luke’s expectations for market moves when a debt ceiling increase is confirmed

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

As Danielle explained in her prior interview, the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global growth slowdown.
But what about Brent Johnson’s view that a global safety trade could keep the stock market party going a while longer?
Danielle’s take on the possibility of President Trump bypassing the Fed and intervening to weaken the dollar through executive action
Why we should be thinking about the possibility of #DoubleEasing – both QE and rate cuts at the same time

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

Private debt problem and its breaking point
Progression of growing debt
History of US government debt to GDP ratio
History of the US treasury market
Cost of low growth and high debt
Drivers of inflation- confidence not money supply
Why Modern Monetary Theory is flawed
Why the current International Monetary System is unstable
Jim’s new book “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos”

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MVEnergyWeek6 This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

Pat Hemsworth on volatility in finished product markets and impacts of last week's hurricane
Dr. Anas Alhajji on IEA and other organizations' bearish price forecasts for 2020
Joe McMonigle's behind-the-scenes insights after attending the OPEC meeting in Vienna
Iran policy news and the abrupt price drop this week
Venezuela and whether Chevron's general license will be extended
Canadian crude differentials to WTI - what's causing them and how long will it last?

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

How the field of economics lost its way and lost touch with how the real world actually works
Several examples of clear disconnects between widely accepted economic theory and real-world actuality
Prof. Steve’s book recommendations for those who want an interpretation of Economics that’s a little closer to reality than the mainstream

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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

Review of Fed Funds rate and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) – what do they mean and why are they important
The theorydescribing how the Fed believed that IOER would effectively cap the Fed Funds rate within their target range
Hard data shows the theory doesn’t match actual reality
Jeff’s explanation of what’s really going on, and why a shortage of USD liquidity in the global offshore Eurodollar market is what’s really driving the observed behavior of Fed Funds and IOER

All-Stars Jeff Snider Chartbook July 15 2019

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IIC Fund manager Alex Gurevich is in the hot seat this month, pitching his “perfect trade” from 2014 long bonds and short the Euro. Alex explains why he believes this was truly a ‘perfect’ can’t lose trade, then we translate to current markets

Why Alex believes there was no sane reason with any view to have been short the U.S. 10yr Treasury in 2014
The perfect trade: Long bonds and short the Euro, and why it worked in 2014
Julian and Juliette’s reactions to the trade itself and to the process question of whether ‘perfect trades’ really exist
Translating this to today’s markets, why Julian and Alex no longer agree completely on bond market outlook
Juliette teases us with a preview of a trade she got WRONG, which we’ll feature in Episode #3

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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

What should we make of crypto currencies suddenly making a come-back? And what about Facebook’s Libra project?
Why Julian remains bullish Gold, and his outlook for Silver
Why Julian is turning bearish on the USD

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jessefeldermacrovoicepic Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

Divergence in market breadth
Theories on the length of this market cycle
Outlook on US dollar
Divergence in bond market
Outlook on bond yields
Unwind of institutional risk parity trade
Value investing strategy in overpriced market
Outlook on Gold & Silver
Facebook's Libra and cryptocurrency
Wealth inequality dichotomy and surveillance capitalism

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MVEnergyWeek10 This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

Anas Alhajji on the impact of increased car sales in China on the oil market, and the importance of China generally, including electric busses & vehicles
Art Berman on key take-aways from this week’s EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
Tracy Shuchart on Iranian uranium enrichment
Panel discussion of the big price move—Inventory, Tropical Storm, or both?
Security for hire in the Straits of Hormuz
Art and Anas debate data interpretation

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MVAS Luke

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Everyone was so focused on the Jobs number that they missed the re-widening of Fed Funds over IOER, which is more important according to Luke
Luke explains the significance of FF > IOER, what it means, and what the consequences are
Luke’s take on the global dollar squeeze thesis we’ve discussed extensively on MacroVoices
Why the dollar squeeze doesn’t deter Luke from being bearish on the USD and bullish on risk assets, gold, and Bitcoin
Luke’s outlook for how things will play out from here in markets

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BrentJohnsonArticle

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

Brent says he was caught by surprise by the Gold breakout, but he’s still not chasing it
Ultimately, Brent thinks Gold will move much higher, but still questions whether this is really the time
Brent’s conviction that the USD is headed higher has never been stronger
But he also points out that he las long predicted Gold and the Dollar would eventually move higher together, and this may have begun
Brent says 4,000+ on the S&P 500 is entirely possible in the next year or two, not because of strong fundamentals but because Brent believes the U.S. Stock market will become the global safety trade benefactor

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MVAllStar LouisVincentGave

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

U.S. Stock Market at all-time highs, but bond markets are also very high. Is this about foreign capital using U.S. markets as a “safety trade?”
Is Deutche Bank’s current distress the new “Lehman Moment” that could indicate coming distress for the entire financial sector?
Will Hong Kong real estate crash as a result of China’s aggressive policy moves and Carrie Lam’s Extradition Bill debacle?

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MVAS Pippa

All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

How Trump's "photo ops" have been making waves in the markets
Why Facebook's Libra raises fundamental questions about our roles as consumers, investors, and private citizens
Why privacy will be "the governance issue of our time"

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JohnNetto Headshot Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome John Netto to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

What’s driving this market?
Where is gold heading next?
Key macro factors driving markets
Outlook on fixed income market
Risk budget vs. Sharpe ratio
Limitations of Sharpe ratio
Outlook on the Mexican Peso
How to apply sentiment indicators to investing strategy
Trader psychology
Macro analysis using Netto numbers

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JulietteArticle

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

Does Christine Lagarde’s appointment to head the ECB change the Financial Repression outlook?
Macron is still the chief architect of who has power in Europe
Outlook for ECB policy leading up to the U.S. Election
Effect on asset prices
Conclusion: Giving power over the ECB to someone with strong relationships with EU leaders AND a strong fiscal background has to be a good thing

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MVEnergyWeek9 This week’s panel: Chris Cook and Ole Hansen

Summary of G20 and OPEC+ meeting outcome & market reactions
This week’s EIA Inventory data
By listener request: Chris Cook takes a deep dive on forward curves and who trades them

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DanielleArticle

Today's All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

Economic conditions are deteriorating globally. We’re in a global recession.
The U.S. Can’t stay de-coupled from global economic slowdown indefinitely!
Danielle’s take on the feud between the Fed and the Trump Administration
Why monetary policy must remain independent from political influence

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

Why economists don’t consider Credit in their Aggregate Demand models
Why they’re wrong, and why credit matters
Detailed review of credit’s role in aggregate demand

Prof.Steve Keen - Credit Bubbles

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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

Treasury and Eurodollar LIBOR yield curve inversions
Fed Funds Money Equivalents
Interest Rate Swaps
Eurodollar Futures Curve

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 1, 2019

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MV Video Digital Currency Revolution In this first of what we hope to be many more MacroVoices Videos, Erik Townsend provides an update on the Digital Currency Revolution. In this video Erik covers the following...

The Digital Currency Revolution will be as big of a deal as the PC or the Public Internet
Blockchain-based Cryptocurrencies will not play a major role in the digital currency revolution
New distributed ledger technology is already making Blockchain obsolete
Erik’s 2018 book predicted that Silicon Valley tech companies would recognize the opportunity to design and build digital currencies designed to eventually scale to replace the USD as global reserve currency
Facebook’s LIBRA announcement confirmed Erik’s prediction
Erik says putting Mark Zuckerberg in charge of how money works is a really, really BAD idea!
Roadmap for the Digital Currency Revolution which has already begun

LukeGromen

Today's All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

Policy developments since Luke’s May 28 All-Stars Appearance
Gold and Bitcoin are starting new bull moves; the Dollar is starting a new bear trend
Lael Brainard’s speech and why it’s so important to markets
Luke’s “bottom line” call for markets

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

Outlook on Uranium
Breakout in gold and what does that mean?
Current situation and outlook on oil prices
Spike in energy prices and geopolitics
Perspective on shale oil over the next decade
Where are the buy levels for oil in the big picture
How to play the energy sector
Opportunistic investing strategy

$1500 Discount on Katusa Research Newsletter Subscription

Katusa Research May Newsletter

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MVEnergyWeek8 This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

Massive drawdowns in crude oil and finished products in today’s EIA inventory report
Dwindling open interest in Brent+WTI (both long and short): Why are traders walking away from crude oil trades?
The PES Refinery Fire and its short- and long-term market implications
China Trade Talks, G20 and OPEC+

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

Can Trump pull off a trade deal with China setting us up for a run into the election?
What do Middle Eastern tensions mean for markets?

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave weighs in on the protests which brought 25% of Hong Kongers to the streets and opines on the longer term outlook for the Chinese Yuan

Summary of the issues that led to the 2 million person protests in the streets of Hong Kong
Longer-term, Louis thinks investors should be more concerned about the risk of Yuan appreciation than the widely feared risk of yuan devaluation

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Greg Weldon to MacroVoices. Erik and Greg discuss:

Outlook on the dollar
The Fed as the world’s central bank
Demand vs. effectiveness of the dollar
Interest rate differentials and its correlation to the dollar
The Fed’s concern regarding the credibility of their inflation target
Outlook on gold
Commodity indicators as economic leading indicators
Risks of monetary policies in Europe
Term structures of grains
Outlook on geopolitics and oil
Gold vs. gold mining shares – where is the opportunity?

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MVEnergyWeek7 This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

Dr. Anas Alhajji on the tanker attacks and who might have been responsible
Pat Hemsworth on the marked changes in forward curves and open interest in recent weeks
Joe McMonigle on the OPEC+ meeting
Group discussion on tanker attacks, who benefits, who could have been responsible
Group discussion on OPEC+, G20, FOMC, and China Trade
Outlook for the week ahead from all panelists

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Professor Steve Keen recaps his recent trip to Sweden for the Central Bank Digital Currency conference, and commonts on Swedish and Nordic economic outlooks

Prof. Steve’s experience at the Central Bank Digital Currency Conference
Steve’s assessment of the Swedish economy
Outlook for the Nordic economies more broadly

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All-Star Juliette Declercq weighs in on what we can expect from this week's FOMC statement, and the disparity between equity and fixed income markets discounting different growth expectations. Also Yuan deval risk.

Factors that will determine the Fed’s “reaction function”
Growth & Inflation outlook
Discrepancy between equity and fixed income markets in growth expectations
Powell’s Priorities: Curve Inversion or Financial Conditions?
China’s role in stabilizing the global economy
Risk of yuan devaluation

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: BRACE FOR IMPACT… The Fed is getting ready to launch NIRP!

Jay Powell replaced ‘zero lower bound’ in his lexicon with ‘EFFECTIVE lower bound’
This is no coincidence; Danielle says they’re getting markets ready for negative interest rates
But… wouldn’t that lead to cash hording? Do they have a plan for that?? (Spoiler alert: No, they don’t)
What to watch for in next week’s FOMC statement

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

Update on U.S. Housing
Residential Construction % of GDP
U.S. home affordability remains favorable
Rate Shock Redux
Lagged effects of rising rates
Canadian real estate
Swelling mortgage debt in Canada
Deterring foreign ownership
Deteriorating household finances
Exposure for the Canadian banks

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Pete Wargent: Update on Australian Housing Market

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MVEnergyWeek6 This week’s panel: Commercial broker Pat Hemsworth, former regulator Chris Cook, and petroleum geologist Art Berman

How can natural gas be in backwardation (Jul-Aug’19) in the summertime, when contango is the norm?
The energy price sell-off has continued even as the stock market has mostly recovered. What’s next for energy prices?

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All-Star Brent Johnson: This past weekend’s developments don’t change Brent’s Dollar-bullish view

Brent was just featured on last week’s MacroVoices podcast, where he expressed a secular dollar-bullish view
Brent says this past weekend’s developments (ECB alluding to rate cuts and U.S.-Mexico tariff deal) don’t change his outlook for the USD
Brent explains why there’s still plenty of upside in U.S. stocks, especially if he’s right about the USD

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LukeGromen

All-Star Luke Gromen: The USD-centric system is slowly losing ground

Luke opens by reviewing the predictions he made at MacroVoices Live in Toronto, and comparing his predictions with how things have actually turned out in the marketplace
Luke reviews the four choices China faces in navigating their monetary policy in the face of ongoing trade negotiations
Luke says the implications of China moving to non-dollar settlement for a wide variety of commodities are poorly understood (he then explains them)
Luke reviews a variety of indications suggesting the Fed will have to inject liquidity again soon

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JeffSnider AllStars All-Star Jeffrey Snider: Yield curves and Eurodollar futures say something is very broken!

Why Jeff thinks the Fed has been ‘hiking for all the wrong reasons’
What happened on May 29, 2018
Eurodollar calendar spreads and what they mean
Rate CUTS (not hikes) are coming to an open market committee near you!

Jeff Snider Chartbook - Alhambra Investments June 2019

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male silhouette. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Brent Johnson to MacroVoices. Erik and Brent discuss:

The “Dollar Milkshake Theory”
US Economy vs. global economy
Short-term and long-term outlook on gold
How the dollar breakout can affect gold
Bond yields collapsing - sign of recession?
How the Fed’s interest rate cut will affect the dollar
The dollar rally and its impact on stocks to move higher
Stronger dollar and its deflationary effects on the global economy
Why the dollar devaluation is necessary
The dollar breakout and its possible effects on the US equity markets

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Adam Collins: Putting CoT data into context

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male silhouette. This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

Dr. Anas Alhajji on deteriorating U.S. data quality
Tracy Shuchart on crude oil spread trades
Art Berman on refined product consumption & storage
The sea change of sentiment in energy markets & what’s driving it
Iran, Saudi Arabia & Venezuela: A deeper look at their options
Will OPEC ever stop pricing oil in USD?
Upcoming OPEC+ meeting and its significance

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male silhouette. The inaugural episode of MacroVoices INSIDE THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE featuring Julian Brigden, Juliette Declercq and Alex Gurevich takes you inside the process professional fund managers and their advisers use to source and vet macro trading strategies.

Inside the Investment Committee (IIC) is a brand new podcast format for very advanced traders and investors. The concept is to take you inside the investment committee of a hedge fund, so that you can experience the conversation between a professional hedge fund manager and his advisors and consultants, as they discuss and evaluate new macro trading strategies.
The inaugural episode focuses on a trade Julian Brigden first recommended to his institutional clients on July 7^th, 2016. The recommended trade was to short fixed income generally, through the 5-year inflation breakevens for sophisticated fixed income traders, and through outright shorts on 5-yr and 10-yr USTs for other traders
Julian pitches his trade idea to the critical ears of fund manager Alex Gurevich and fellow institutional adviser Juliette Declercq, and they have plenty of comments to challenge Julian’s thinking.
The rationale for putting the original trade on back in the summer of 2016 is discussed first, then the conversation continues to how the UST market has evolved in the 3 years since, and where the opportunities lie today for new trades. On that point, there’s plenty of disagreement between panelists
Finally, Alex Gurevich gives a quick income to the pairs trade involving both the Euro currency and USTs which he’ll be pitching to the panel in episode #2.
This is the first “new concept” podcast on the MacroVoices Podcast Network, and listener feedback and suggestions are welcome on how to improve the format

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