Welcome to Macro Voices

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

• Benefits of the U.S. losing its reserve currency status
• International trade and deindustrialization of U.S.
• U.S. Government budget and trade deficits
• Possible fiscal crisis and the increase of US Treasury Yields
• Devaluation of the dollar, imports and inflation shock
• Risk of global currency to replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
• Consequences of decrease in demand for US dollar
• Runaway inflation and runaway trade deficit
• Government spending, current inequality in income tax system
• Risks and opportunities of MMT

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

• Insights from Neil on how the Fourth Turning is unfolding
• Climax’s at the end of the Fourth Turning
• Socialism, populism and extremism in politics
• What is in store for the second half of the fourth turning
• Current economic expansion is running out of workers
• Effect of population composition
• Late-cycle dynamics and real GDP growth trends
• Correlations of term spreads and consumer confidence
• Term spreads, credit cycles and volatility
• Demographic trends for the long-term future

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Neil will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Juliette Declercq - Financial Repression Theme

• Perspective on the Fed pivot
• What is the trade in this market environment

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg back to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

• Thoughts on the Fed policy shift
• Is the market still in a topping formation?
• Are we in an earnings recession?
• How low will yields go on Treasury Bonds?
• Has the MMT crowd discovered something new?
• Will we see helicopter money during the next downturn?
• What can go wrong with the implementation of Modern Monetary Theory?
• Looking back to the Ben Bernanke playbook from 2002
• What is in store for the corporate bond market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Free Trial to Breakfast with Dave

The Big Picture Trading Post Game Chart Book

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Oil price collapse was more than a correction
• World production surplus for 2019-2020
• Asking if OPEC matters anymore?
• U.S. Oil production
• Trends in world liquid production
• Perspective on the Brent and WTI curves
• Why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI
• Increasing short bets on oil
• Future of U.S. E&P companies
• Cost of drilling wells

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Charlie McElligott - Ides of March

Quarterly Op-Ex Seasonality
Extremes in option $Delta (SPX, SPY and QQQ)
Resumption of buyback blackout window
Systematic trend models - sell triggers

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

• Perspective on the U.S./China Trade War
• Is this about trade or the Korean peninsula?
• Chinese strategy in the South China Sea
• The future of Donald Trump
• China and Russia relations
• Future of hypersonic warfare
• Trends in socialism and populism
• Surveillance Capitalism
• Outlook for the equity markets

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  BRENT JOHNSON

• Alternative timeframes for the dollar endgame
• Why the dollar can continue to rise in the interim 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

• How severe could a bear market be?
• Complex dynamic systems
• Short-term crash vs. extended bear market
• Phase transitions and twin bubbles
• Tipping points, crash hallmarks and butterflies
• Why are the risks now?
• Are treasury bonds going to be the benefactor?
• How to play the short side of the markets?
• Populism is the elephant in the room
• Alternative monetary policy 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

• Bigger picture outlook in the business cycle
• Perspective on the yield curve steepener
• Outlook Treasury bonds
• Where is the dollar trend heading next?
• Quantitative tightening and easing in this cycle
• Australian and Canadian economies
• Outlook on Chinese economy
• What is on the horizon for Japan?
• What is in the future for Europe?
• Where is gold heading in the bigger picture?
• Interest rates as a predictor of equity markets

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- MACRO TOURIST KEVIN MUIR discussing Modern Monetary Theory 

The Macro Tourist - Everything you wanted to know about MMT (but were afraid to ask)

Watch Erik Townsend joining Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on the new Market Huddle Show https://markethuddle.com/

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier back to MacroVoices. Erik and Patrick discuss:

• Where are treasury bonds heading next?
• Foreign buyers of treasury bonds
• How does China effect global growth?
• Tightening of Chinese monetary policy
• Which central bank is dictating global inflation
• Fed policy and the trend of monetary policy
• Outlook for developed stock markets
• Consequences of loose monetary policy
• Is the decade long bull market over?
• Is the Fed out of bullets?
• Outlook for the U.S. Dollar

Russell Napiers: A Practical History of Financial Markets Course Details

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

• China Trade Collapse
• Update on China Credit Impulse
• PBoC Liquidity Operations
• Bear market rally or continuation of bull market?
• Fading the Fed’s economic optimism
• Sequencing that could cause a force in on the equity markets
• CTA Model Positioning across asset classes
• Positioning in risk parity funds
• Purge in equity fund flows in Q4 2018
• Fear the steepener

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

• Update on uranium and uranium producers
• Outlook on oil prices
• Opportunities in the steel industry
• Investing in the diamond industry
• What is happening in the resource industry?
• How to be a successful resource investor

Katusa Research Promo for MacroVoice Listeners

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Join Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna as they spend an episode reviewing the best market calls of 2018:

• Calling the top of Bitcoin
• Francesco Filia and Kevin Muir on the VIX ETNs
• Chris Cole on VIX and system risks
• Darius Dale on Chinese economy
• Buy the dip calls in Q2
• Russell Napier on the Emerging Markets
• David Rosenberg on markets and corporate bonds
• Jesse Felder on the FAANG
• Charlie McElligott on liquidity
• Keith McCullough on bond yields peaked

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- BRENT JOHNSON 

• Where is the U.S. Dollar going post FOMC
• What is the outlook for gold
• Where are the stock markets going next

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- LOUIS-VINCENT GAVE - AN IMPORTANT CROSSROAD

• Why a Liquidity Squeeze?
• Havoc in the US corporate bond market
• The end of Chin-America

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

• Impact of trade war on the global economy
• PBOC and Chinese monetary policy
• Global growth outlook
• U.S. Dollar and U.S. monetary policy outlook
• Is the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?
• What is in the cards for 2019?
• Perspective on U.S. housing and its impact
• Political turmoil in France and outlook on Europe

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• What is driving the bond market right now?
• Is it all about demographics?
• The global excesses in the equity markets
• Are the U.S. housing markets overpriced?
• Where is the next trade in treasuries?
• Putting on the steepener
• Is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce?
• Inflation considerations in 2019
• What is the next move for the Fed?

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Art Berman

Art joins Erik and Patrick to discuss the current bear market in oil and asking where is the right price for oil. Chart book available to registered listenered. 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

• How the investment landscape has evolved?
• Marginal rates of change in growth and inflation
• Why are deflationary pressures on the horizon? 
• Global economic landscape
• Staying ahead of the curve with the study of rates of change
• U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts
• Key macro themes into the year-end
• Closer look at the underlying drivers going into 2019
• Are companies likely to experience a margin squeeze
• Trouble for China in 2019

TD/TMX Options Education Day - Free to attend - November 21, 2018

BONUS: Beyond Blockchain, The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency - Chapter 1 Preview

by Erik Townsend

The cryptocurrency trend of the past few years has continued to grow despite widespread predictions that it would just be a flash in the pan. Blockchain is suddenly everyone's favorite buzzword. But what if there's more to this story than meets the eye? What if Digital Currency is about to change the world in ways beyond our imagination? And what if geopolitical forces our politicians don't even understand have already inspired China and Russia to use Digital Currency to attack the U.S. Dollar's dominance over the global financial system?

Erik covers these subjects and more in his recently published book.Listen to a preview of Chapter 1 here.

For more information and to order the paperback, Kindle, or audiobook Click Here

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

• Opportunities on drone technology
• The leaders in unmanned aerial vehicles
• Data privacy in the firmware
• Drones and risks in being used for terrorism
• Leadership and the new paradigms
• Speed of technological change and government
• Situational awareness

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Marin Katusa - Katusa Research 

• Is the gold breakout for real?
• Update on Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Hanke to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

• Drivers of the recessions over the last 30 years
• Perspectives on Lehman Brothers failure
• M4 Money Supply as the broadest measure
• Dangers in quantitative tightening
• Commercial banks drive money supply
• Stabilizing the U.S. Dollar Euro rate
• Understanding past hyperinflation
• Perspective on Venezuela's hyperinflation 

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

Chart Book for this week's episode

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- CHARLIE MCELLIGOTT - UPDATE ON THE EQUITY MARKETS

Discussing the market selloff and the drivers for the next move in the S&P500 .  

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Julian Brigden: Update on the Breakout on Yields

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

• Understanding the government bond bubble
• Can equities rally during a bond route?
• Rethinking bonds and portfolio allocations
• Artificially suppressed interest rates
• Has the bear market in bonds started?
• Growth in the sovereign debt markets
• Impact of higher rates on governments
• Outlook on equities and the gold

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Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Comparative inventory on oil
• Inventory correlation to price
• Price cycles and the oil-price yield curve
• Impact of U.S. exporting oil
• Trends in tight oil rig counts
• Managed money unwinding net long positions
• Distillate and gasoline inventories
• Why is backwardation collapsing on WTI
• Sensitivities to supply concerns
• Discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts
• Where are oil prices going in 2019?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

• Curve steepener as a recession signal
• Dollar, real rates and inflation expectations impact on S&P500
• Gauging tighter financial conditions
• Chinese credit/financing impulse
• Late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders
• Fearing the inversion or the steepener on the yield curve?
• Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and recessions
• Hedge fund underperformance and the performance chase

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

• Why uranium and why now?
• Political and geopolitical considerations
• Understanding the royalty and streaming business
• Uranium royalties
• Private placements in a streaming model
• Understanding warrants on resource companies
• Focusing on companies that are acquisition targets

Information about Marin Katusa's Premium Research 

MacroVoices LIVE Toronto 2018 - Trailer for Video Access

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss:

• Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair
• Jackson Hole – Draghi and Kuroda absence
• Jackson Hole – How did Powell do?
• Impacts from the trade war
• Should markets be concerned about QT
• Impact of the rising dollar on Fed policy
• Where is the economy headed?
• Inflation expectations moving forward
• Economic outlook in Europe and China
• What is the trade into the year end?

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Considerations on Federal Reserve Intervention
• Switzerland as a major supplier of dollars
• Structural changes to the Eurodollar System
• Riskless return shifts to returnless risk
• Banks simply do not want to do it anymore
• Impact to sustained economic growth
• Impact on global economies including EM and China

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Collateral problems with gold in 2008
• Liquidity risk, not credit
• Basic Interbank Function – Basel ‘Conjuring’
• Larger issue of balance sheet capacity
• Management of the asset side – dark leverage
• Impaired assets and OTTI
• Negative swap spreads assaulting conventional financial sense
• Pro-cyclical positive monetary feedback loop
• Balance sheet capacity – the modern bank run

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• The Lost Dollar Decade
• LIBOR and EFF spreads over Fed funds target
• Global dollar markets in perspective
• Into the shadows of the crisis
• Financial crisis and the gross outstanding CDS
• CDS liquidity crisis

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

• Drivers behind the everything bubble
• Will Quantitative Tightening be a trigger?
• Is this a topping process in the markets?
• Impacts of a high degree of market leverage
• The Buffet yard stick
• What is in store for the FAANG stocks?
• How to position yourself defensively in this market?
• Positioning on agricultural and gold mining stocks
• Inflation and the risks of an inflation pickup

Throughout the interview Erik and Jesse refer to the chart book.  This chart book is available free for registered users.  Register now for free and find the links below. 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Brent Johnson: CEO of Santiago Capital

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcom Brent Johnson to the show to discuss everything gold.  They discuss the dollar, short-term and long-term outlook for gold.  

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Angie Setzer @GoddessofGrain

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

• Trump, art of the deal, trade wars
• North Korea, a renegade or Chinese puppet
• Russia, Syria, US and chemical warfare
• Russia and a new global reserve currency
• Facebook’s impact on geo-politics and financial markets
• Where is social media data mining leading us?
• The Leadership Lab: Understanding Leadership in the 21st century

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cook to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

• How regulators look at markets
• The blow out of time spreads in WTI
• Oil deals outside of the market
• Syncrude going offline and its impact
• What is the “big long” and what it predicts
• Who is buying futures contracts 2.5 years out and why?
• Dark inventory, what is it and how does it fit into the big picture?
• Energy dominance and the white house
• China and the Petro-Yuan contract
• Gaming US exports and inventory
• Time spreads and war

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  Josh Steiner:  Update on Australian and U.S. Housing Markets. 

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Erik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

• Replacing the USD as the world reserve currency
• The impact of protectionist policies on financial markets
• FED reductions and their impact around the world
• How accurate is the current unemployment rate and what does it mean?
• Entitlements and they will become a serious problem
• The changes we can expect in central bank attitudes moving forward
• Demographics, baby boomers, and millennials and their impact over the coming years on financial markets
• Inflation vs deflation which is right and how to be sure

SPECIAL GUEST: Kevin Muir - This week's co-host and post-game guest.  Make sure to download the post-game chart book as Erik and Kevin will be refering to it through the podcast.  

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

• Current outlook on the U.S. dollar
• Shift of funding in the U.S. deficits
• U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”
• Treasury bonds trading like a risky asset
• Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance
• Emerging market considerations
• China accelerating global de-dollarization
• U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran
• Gold and the gold/oil ratio
• How to trade the second half of 2018

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Dr. Ellen Wald to the show. Discussed this week:

Dr. Ellen Wald

• Saudi Arabia's perspective on the oil markets?
• Perspective about Saudi Aramco
• Understanding Mohammad bin Salman
• Social Politics in Saudi Arabia
  

Anas Alhajji & Joe McMonigle

• What is driving the oil markets right now?
• Considerations on the Iranian sanctions
• Insights into next week’s OPEC meeting
• Bigger picture geopolitical outlook for the oil markets
• How to interpret the backwardation on oil?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Sherman to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Big picture outlook on bonds, interest rates and inflation
• Considerations on the treasury COT reports
• Is there a recession coming in the U.S.?
• How much upside on the U.S. Dollar?
• Is the trade being short global high yield bonds?
• How does the economy deal with higher rates and inflation?
• Bullish outlook on gold?
• Investing into commodities and commodity funds

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Nomi Prins to MacroVoices. Erik and Nomi discuss:

• Why has QE never led to runaway inflation?
• How has the market been propped up for 10 years without consequence?
• What does the ECB own today?
• The bank of Japan, their program and what it contains?
• Central banks around the world and how they compare?
• When does tapering occur on a global scale?

For the second featured interview Erik Townsend welcomes Pat Hemsworth to discuss:

• Why Saudi Arabia and Russia can’t make up their minds about oil prices?
• Iran sanctions, expectations and what they mean?
• Venezuela, production and what is next?
• OPEC, faking it till they make it?
• What is the forward curve telling us about the market?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy discuss:

• Has the bond bear market started?
• What are the opposing views?
• Shorting high yield debt and junk credit
• Where to be on the yield curve right now
• Will America ever be able to repay the debt?
• Where is the point of no return on debt?
• Considerations on global over indebtedness
• Endgame on the systemic problem of debt
• Inflation expectations

 SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: KEVIN MUIR DISCUSSING THE CURRENT BOND MARKETS

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

• Outlook on the U.S. Dollar for 2018
• Do rate differentials matter?
• Has there been a regime shift?
• Is equity risk premium just catching up to higher real yields?
• How does the economic data tie back into bearish dollar narrative?
• What has happened this year in the U.S. dollar?
• Tactical considerations on a new U.S. dollar short
• Market positioning on the interim
• Can surprising strength in U.S. economy change the outlook?

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: TG MACRO'S TONY GREER

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss:

• The corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market
• The Hong Kong dollar peg
• China’s debt and related risks
• The risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously
• “The Upcoming Monetary War, With Gold as An Arbiter”
• Gold bullish vs bearish
• The return of secular inflation
• What happened in the 70’s with inflation?
• Preparing for the return of secular inflation

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

• Deflationary risks in the U.S. 
• Context on current higher inflation prints
• How high are risks of a credit event
• Contagion risk if China “sneezes”
• Consideration on the impact of higher rates
• Do we still need a world reserve currency?
• Is there a concern of the US government not being able to fund itself?
• Impact of the global de-dollarization trend
• What is in store for the gold markets?
• What do investors need to consider in the current environment?
• What comes next for the equity markets?
• Impact on emerging market and junk bond markets
• The falling Yen and its impact on Japan

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

• Considerations on uranium exports to from Russia to the US
• What options does the US have for new uranium sources?
• Is there an investment play for uranium?
• Electric vehicles and why they’ll be a dominant trend over the coming years
• Why is copper a key component, and how to play it during this trend
• Is copper a sole source material for EV or is there an alternative?
• Will more efficient electric vehicles require more or less copper?
• The copper industry and its ability to scale up
• The investment play for copper and uranium prices going up

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman, Mark Cudmore and Jeffrey Snider to the show. Discussed this week:

Harley Bassman: 

• How will we know when the real bear market is on?
• The implicit and explicit VOL trade and how long will it take to play out?
• How will a bond sell off impact inflation?
• The USD over then next few years

Mark Cudmore: 

• Is this a correction or something much bigger?
• The USD and the recent sideways consolidation, what does it mean?
• Outlook for the bond market
• Commodities, China, Europe and EM
• Current stress on the Hong Kong Dollar

Jeffrey Snider:

• Where are the equity markets headed?
• What is going on with the Hong Kong Dollar?
• Principles of a “Dollar Short”

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview with Harley Bassman. Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Darius Dale to MacroVoices. Erik and Darius discuss:

• The U.S. growth cycle and its peak
• Considerations on inflation
• Earnings outlook for the rest of the year
• Global divergence reiterated
• Prognostications vs the reality of the markets
• China’s massive credit expansion
• One final leg in the dollar?
• USD breakdown in currency and interest differentials

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

• Considerations on the equity markets
• Post-crash dynamics
• Medium-term drivers of the U.S. Dollar
• Has something fundamentally changed in the U.S. treasury markets?
• Where is the yield curve going?
• TED and LIBOR OIS spreads
• Outlook on the Canadian economy
• Context on the Chinese economic outlook
• Has the Japanese economy peaked?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• How do things look in today’s market?
• What is on the horizon for inflation?
• Risks of runaway inflation
• What comes next for equities?
• Are the market highs in already?
• What if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go?
• US Dollar structural issues
• What is causing the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds?
• What levels should we be watching on the US Dollar?
• Where to focus the bond short

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Julian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

• What does the yield curve tell us?
• US Treasury Curve
• Changes from an Era of Fed Funds Rate Targeting
• Reflections on the 2006-2009 curves
• Reflation trends in the post GFC
• Deconstructing Rates
• Negative Term Premiums
• Market Inflation Expectations
• Eurodollar Futures & Effective Money
• Central Bank Failure
• This Flat Curve is the Bad One

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Erik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

• Is this the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation?
• What is the reason that we have a back up of interest rates?
• How far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks?
• With China’s banking assets now at 44 trillion how will this end?
• Is inflation coming and what are the consequences?
• What were some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year?

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST AND CO-HOST - Kevin Muir – market strategist at East West Investment Management and author of the MacroTourist. We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies the post game interview as Erik and Kevin will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

• The state of the FED under J Powell 
• What to make of rising treasury yields?
• How far can the FED go before something breaks?
• Outlook on Inflation
• Perspective on gold
• What can be the outcome of such a massive credit expansion?
• Shorting junk bonds
• What drivers of long term cycles and what can we expect to see next?
• What happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920?
• Considerations on what actions the government can take to deal with the debt

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them
• What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done today?
• The gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes”
• What happened to gold in the 2008 crisis
• What caused gold to turn at the end of 2008
• Why do central banks still hold gold after 2008 and why are others not?
• Why did gold peak in 2011 and what was so bearish about it in 2013?
• How do dollar index futures fit into the gold story?
• How has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?
• How will gold play out if the dollar continues to slide
• Topic nnInterbank lending statistics discontinued, what does it mean

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

• Why focus on investing natural resources?
• Using top down macro in resource investing
• Rare earths and lithium 
• What resources should investors focus on?
• Uranium and nuclear energy
• Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
• Copper, Potash and Dry Bulk Shipping
• Water as a commodity
• China and the future of rare earths

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Erik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

• Is this just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger?
• Is this all about rates or the VIX complex?
• Why were the Inverse VIX products flawed
• Context on the increasing rates and the movement of the dollar
• Stagflation and inflation risks
• Considerations on corporate debt and buybacks
• Impact of the changes of leadership at the FED
• Context on FED policy tools during the next recession
• Is this a Bear Stearns moment for the markets?

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss:

• Drivers of this stock market drop
• Is higher volatility here to stay?
• The beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade
• Future regulation of these specialty ETF products
• Where are the markets heading from here? 
• Bonds, interest rates and how high can rates go?
• Where is the U.S. dollar heading next?
• Dollars relationship to gold
• Outlook on the Canadian economy

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUESTS:

Chris Cole from Artemis Capital - Follow up on his January 25th interview on Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk.
Devin Anderson - Managing Director - Postmortem on the implosion of the vol ETNs  

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Reflecting on the current oil market
• Where are the comparative inventories
• OPEC decisions and actions dominating price
• Context on OPEC production cuts
• How much new oil is coming from higher prices
• Economics on the shale oil fields
• Perspective on US oil exports
• Exports primary reason behind U.S. inventory reductions
• Underinvestment in exploration and development

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: Energy Markets Commercial Broker Patricia Hemsworth to discuss producer hedging, WTI/Brent spreads and the forward curve price dynamics.

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Outlook for the US dollar for 2018
• Are rate differentials going to impact the dollar move?
• Considerations on the Yuan oil contract
• Is the bond bull market over?
• Low inflation vs. stagnation
• Is the oil rally sustainable?
• Outlook on the commodity markets
• Considerations on the equity markets
• Perspectives on China’s economy
• Will the European Union survive?
• Outlook for the Euro currency
• Bullish emerging markets and currencies

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Erik Townsend welcomes Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

• Macro drivers of the Canadian and Australian real estate markets
• Canada’s "Minsky Moment"
• Turning up the heat with policies
• Impact on Canadian Banks
• Australian one-cylinder economy
• Perspective on the Australian construction boom
• Negative gearing in Australia and home equity withdrawal
• Considerations on U.S. real estate
• There is still room to run in the U.S. markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Josh will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 5 of the 5 Part Series, the panel discuss the possible outcomes:

• What sign posts for the big change?
• Potential triggers for a lower U.S. dollar
• Can structural changes be implemented
• Which investment assets will work the best?
• Which investment assets will work the worst?
• Considerations on investment portfolios

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MacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 4 of the 5 Part Series, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen present:

• Gold as a Reserve Asset
• Gold/Oil Ratio
• Bypassing the US Dollar
• Dollar shortage caused by oil price
• Deficits starting to matter
• U.S. losing its status as a hegemonic power
• Logistics in replacing the U.S. System
• How does the end of Dollar Hegemony occur?

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 3 of the 5 part series, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen present: 

• U.S. Dollar Cyclical Pattern
• Looking at the Dollar Technicals
• Is there room for one more rally?
• Gold and the Oil for Yuan Plan
• Impacts to Emerging Markets
• Demographics, Deflation and Lower Rates
• Welcome to Multi-Polar FX World
• China and Russia’s end-game strategy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 2 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:

• The post 2007 U.S. Dollar shortage
• How does the dollar scarcity play out?
• Problems facing China at the moment
• Considerations on China’s gold buying
• Is a RMB crypto currency possible?
• Do American politicians even know there is a problem?
• Dollar short squeeze not a U.S. Dollar bull
• Global De-dollarization

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. In part 1 of the 5 part series, Jeffrey Snider presents:

• Overview of the big picture story
• Perspectives on where we are today
• Bulls vs. Bears (nobody wins)
• Bank of Russia operations in FX repo auctions
• Brazilian Real and the US dollar funding
• China’s management of the US dollar
• The evolving Chinese response

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

• Reflecting on the 2008 crisis
• What is going to go wrong with the current credit cycle
• False narratives around QE and bank reserves
• Where is the risk to correction in asset pricing?
• Walking dead of debt and the zombies to be
• Considerations on Japan, Canada and China
• How long does this debt cycle last?
• Will the next crisis be more wide spread?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Steve will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

• US Economy Late in the Cycle
• China’s Macro Landscape
• Where is Inflation Heading?
• Caution on equities 2018
• Direction for 10year Bonds
• The US Yield Curve and Potential Recession
• When has the Fed gone too far?
• Changing of the guard at the FED
• USD bearish outlook

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Erik Townsend welcomes Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

• Saudi Arabia Politics
• The power shift in the Middle East
• Petrodollar and the Yuan oil contract
• Considerations on American oil
• Understanding the OPEC and Russia relationship
• Saudi Aramco IPO
• Future of electric vehicle market
• The outlook on uranium
• Understanding global uranium enrichment
• Future of Russia and Vladimir Putin

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Erik Townsend welcomes Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

• Measuring the equity bubble
• Measuring the bond bubble
• What could be the catalyst be for the reversal?
• Fake market narrative
• Chasing narratives and global growth
• Positive feedback loops
• ETFs and their impact on the markets
• Systemic risks from funds not just banks
• Considerations on European junk bonds
• S&P values vs. share buybacks
• Risks to the market from the short VOL trade

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: The Macro Tourist Kevin Muir discussing bonds, inflation and the coming collapse of the short VIX trade. 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

• Bullish narrative on equities 
• Valuation is not a catalyst
• Trends in growth and inflation
• Where are we in the economic cycle
• Global economic divergences
• Growth acceleration puts a lid on market multiples
• Earnings considerations
• Considerations on technology valuations
• Long/short strategies
  
  We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Bastardization of money
• Failure of Primus in 2009
• Reflecting on the failure of AIG
• Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
• Henry Paulson and Glass–Steagall
• The Eurodollar system going parabolic in the 2000s
• Banks manipulating regulations
• FOMC understanding of Eurodollars
• Big Picture end game of the Eurodollar system

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (74.52 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (542 KB)

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