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MVEnergyWeek7This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on the tanker attacks and who might have been responsible
  • Pat Hemsworth on the marked changes in forward curves and open interest in recent weeks
  • Joe McMonigle on the OPEC+ meeting
  • Group discussion on tanker attacks, who benefits, who could have been responsible
  • Group discussion on OPEC+, G20, FOMC, and China Trade
  • Outlook for the week ahead from all panelists

 

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Professor Steve Keen recaps his recent trip to Sweden for the Central Bank Digital Currency conference, and commonts on Swedish and Nordic economic outlooks

  • Prof. Steve’s experience at the Central Bank Digital Currency Conference
  • Steve’s assessment of the Swedish economy
  • Outlook for the Nordic economies more broadly


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All-Star Juliette Declercq weighs in on what we can expect from this week's FOMC statement, and the disparity between equity and fixed income markets discounting different growth expectations. Also Yuan deval risk. 

  • Factors that will determine the Fed’s “reaction function”
  • Growth & Inflation outlook
  • Discrepancy between equity and fixed income markets in growth expectations
  • Powell’s Priorities: Curve Inversion or Financial Conditions?
  • China’s role in stabilizing the global economy
  • Risk of yuan devaluation


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DanielleAll-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: BRACE FOR IMPACT… The Fed is getting ready to launch NIRP!

  • Jay Powell replaced ‘zero lower bound’ in his lexicon with ‘EFFECTIVE lower bound’
  • This is no coincidence; Danielle says they’re getting markets ready for negative interest rates
  • But… wouldn’t that lead to cash hording? Do they have a plan for that?? (Spoiler alert: No, they don’t)
  • What to watch for in next week’s FOMC statement


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Update on U.S. Housing
  • Residential Construction % of GDP
  • U.S. home affordability remains favorable
  • Rate Shock Redux
  • Lagged effects of rising rates
  • Canadian real estate 
  • Swelling mortgage debt in Canada
  • Deterring foreign ownership
  • Deteriorating household finances 
  • Exposure for the Canadian banks 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Pete Wargent: Update on Australian Housing Marketmale silhouette

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Commercial broker Pat Hemsworth, former regulator Chris Cook, and petroleum geologist Art Berman

  • How can natural gas be in backwardation (Jul-Aug’19) in the summertime, when contango is the norm?
  •  The energy price sell-off has continued even as the stock market has mostly recovered. What’s next for energy prices?

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Brent Johnson: This past weekend’s developments don’t change Brent’s Dollar-bullish view

 

  • Brent was just featured on last week’s MacroVoices podcast, where he expressed a secular dollar-bullish view
  • Brent says this past weekend’s developments (ECB alluding to rate cuts and U.S.-Mexico tariff deal) don’t change his outlook for the USD
  • Brent explains why there’s still plenty of upside in U.S. stocks, especially if he’s right about the USD


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LukeGromen

All-Star Luke Gromen: The USD-centric system is slowly losing ground

  • Luke opens by reviewing the predictions he made at MacroVoices Live in Toronto, and comparing his predictions with how things have actually turned out in the marketplace
  • Luke reviews the four choices China faces in navigating their monetary policy in the face of ongoing trade negotiations
  • Luke says the implications of China moving to non-dollar settlement for a wide variety of commodities are poorly understood (he then explains them)
  • Luke reviews a variety of indications suggesting the Fed will have to inject liquidity again soon


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JeffSnider AllStarsAll-Star Jeffrey Snider: Yield curves and Eurodollar futures say something is very broken!

  • Why Jeff thinks the Fed has been ‘hiking for all the wrong reasons’
  • What happened on May 29, 2018
  • Eurodollar calendar spreads and what they mean
  • Rate CUTS (not hikes) are coming to an open market committee near you!

Jeff Snider Chartbook - Alhambra Investments June 2019


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Brent Johnson to MacroVoices. Erik and Brent discuss:

  • The “Dollar Milkshake Theory”
  • US Economy vs. global economy 
  • Short-term and long-term outlook on gold
  • How the dollar breakout can affect gold
  • Bond yields collapsing - sign of recession?
  • How the Fed’s interest rate cut will affect the dollar
  • The dollar rally and its impact on stocks to move higher
  • Stronger dollar and its deflationary effects on the global economy
  • Why the dollar devaluation is necessary
  • The dollar breakout and its possible effects on the US equity markets

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Adam Collins: Putting CoT data into contextmale silhouette

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male silhouette.This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on deteriorating U.S. data quality
  • Tracy Shuchart on crude oil spread trades
  • Art Berman on refined product consumption & storage
  • The sea change of sentiment in energy markets & what’s driving it
  • Iran, Saudi Arabia & Venezuela: A deeper look at their options
  • Will OPEC ever stop pricing oil in USD?
  • Upcoming OPEC+ meeting and its significance

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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male silhouette.The inaugural episode of MacroVoices INSIDE THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE featuring Julian Brigden, Juliette Declercq and Alex Gurevich takes you inside the process professional fund managers and their advisers use to source and vet macro trading strategies. 

  • Inside the Investment Committee (IIC) is a brand new podcast format for very advanced traders and investors. The concept is to take you inside the investment committee of a hedge fund, so that you can experience the conversation between a professional hedge fund manager and his advisors and consultants, as they discuss and evaluate new macro trading strategies.
  • The inaugural episode focuses on a trade Julian Brigden first recommended to his institutional clients on July 7th, 2016. The recommended trade was to short fixed income generally, through the 5-year inflation breakevens for sophisticated fixed income traders, and through outright shorts on 5-yr and 10-yr USTs for other traders
  • Julian pitches his trade idea to the critical ears of fund manager Alex Gurevich and fellow institutional adviser Juliette Declercq, and they have plenty of comments to challenge Julian’s thinking.
  • The rationale for putting the original trade on back in the summer of 2016 is discussed first, then the conversation continues to how the UST market has evolved in the 3 years since, and where the opportunities lie today for new trades. On that point, there’s plenty of disagreement between panelists
  • Finally, Alex Gurevich gives a quick income to the pairs trade involving both the Euro currency and USTs which he’ll be pitching to the panel in episode #2.
  • This is the first “new concept” podcast on the MacroVoices Podcast Network, and listener feedback and suggestions are welcome on how to improve the format

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden: The Fed needs to ease

  • Why the dollar is crucial to kick off the next wave of the cycle
  • Why the feedback loop between asset prices and the real economy is toxic
  • Why the risk reward has deteriorated in the bond market / why bonds aren’t necessarily the correct risk off trade


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SteveKeenArticleAll-Star Steve Keen: Debunking the fake climate science of William Nordhause

  • Prof. Keen’s debunking of the Nobel prize-winning work of economics William Nordhaus
  • The role of Energy in the economy and why classical economic models fail to consider it
  • Why Prof. Keen says the risks posed by climate change are far worse that Nordhaus estimates
  • Prof. Keen’s prediction of an eventual energy short for traders (and our host’s disagreement)

Climate Change and the Nobel Prize in Economics by Steve Keen


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DanielleArticleAll-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Deflation is the name of the game unless/until helicopter money hits the stage

  • We review Danielle’s market calls from her Christmas 2018 newsletter to see how they performed
  • Danielle says USD has reached her upside target and trajectory from here is less clear
  • Danielle still sees lower treasury yields, low inflation, and lower commodity prices on the horizon
  • But she emphasizes that investors must stay nimble, because a change in political winds in favor of Modern Monetary Theory or other “Helicopter Money” benefits could be a game changer

Shadow Boxing the Consensus

Living to Tell


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss:

  • Are we actually in late cycle dynamics?
  • Concept of late cycle: what is the cycle and how does the cycle work
  • Business cycle vs. Inflation cycle 
  • Using cyclical indicators to monitor where we are in the cycle
  • Growth rate cycle downturns and recoveries
  • Correlation between growth rate downturn and risks of recession
  • 3 P’s: Pronounced, Pervasive and Persistent decline in the growth rate
  • What the leading indicators show when the cycle is ending
  • Length of expansion vs. the severity of recession
  • Characteristics of business cycle, credit cycle and inflation cycle
  • Changes in productivity growth is needed in order to attain higher trend growth
  • Recession serves a purpose in a free market economy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Lakshman will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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male silhouette.This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Ole Hansen, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth. 

  • There’s been a disturbance in the force! (market roller-coaster ride)
  • Is this about energy fundamentals or the stock market driving energy market direction?
  • Where is the market headed from here?
  • Iran military conflict scenario: Is it really bullish for oil prices?
  • Signposts to watch in the week ahead

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All-Star Luke Gromen: There’s reason to think the U.S. Dollar is topping here

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Luke Gromen. Luke says that the Fed Funds rate moving stubbornly over IOER is a clear sign that the Fed will soon be forced to supply more dollar liquidity, a bearish sign given current sentiment extremes.

  • It’s possible both stocks AND bonds have it right, and the USD has it wrong
  • Fed Funds moving above IOER “isn’t supposed to happen”
  • This is a real-time indicator that USA is headed for a fiscal crisis
  • The Fed will be forced to resume balance sheet expansion soon
  • Boston Fed governor Lael Brainard’s comments about targeting long-term UST rates

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All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren : Geopolitics is increasingly important for investors!

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Dr.Pippa Malmgren. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • U.S.-China Trade Talks and the Huawei debacle
  • Populism winning European Elections (and spreading elsewhere)
  • U.S.-Iran Situation

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KevinMuirArticle

All-Star Kevin Muir says the market is way ahead of the Fed in pricing in easing!

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Kevin Muir. Erik and Kevin discuss:

  • Kevin says the market is way ahead of the Fed pricing in accommodative monetary policy
  • Kevin thinks bond longs betting on economic collapse will be disappointed
  • Skew in Eurodollar futures offers trading opportunity
  • Fixed income vol is dirt cheap relative to equity vol
  • Why shorting an INDEX is the wrong way to play a bearish view on U.S./China trade negotiations

Kevin Muir MacroTourist Chartbook


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome John Greenwood to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • Where are we in the business cycle and what comes next?
  • The mechanics of what really drives the cycle
  • Understanding the importance of broad money
  • Relationship of money growth and GDP
  • The signs at the end of the business cycle
  • The role the debt plays in the business cycle
  • Money supply measured by M2/M3
  • Money and the shadow banking system
  • Broad money growth vs. inflation average

 

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and John will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (66.71 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript: pdf Here (139 KB)

male silhouette.This week's panelists: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Anas Alhajji on pricing oil in USD vs. other currencies
  • Pat Hemsworth on finished product inventories as refinery maintenance season winds downTopic 3
  • Art Berman on sustainability/growth of U.S. shale production
  • Iran/Geopolitical Risk Update
  • Why are front-month oil prices trading flat-to-down even as backwardation steepens in forward curves?
  • Brent-WTI Spread: What’s driving it to such a wide discount ($9.49 as of today’s close), and what comes next?

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook


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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen on Richard Vague’s new book, A Brief History of Doom

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Professor SteveKeen, who weighs in on Richard Vague’s new book, A Brief History of Doom. Steve says Vague has it exactly right, and his analysis of what caused 2008’s Great Financial Crisis jibes almost exactly with Steve’s own analysis of that event.

 Prof. Steve Keen's Article on Richard Vague's book (PDF) 

or on his website: A Brief History of Doom: The New Kindleberger and Mackay

 

 


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All-Star Juliette Declercq on Populism

Juliette Declercq believes the surprise outcome of the Australian elections is an important signal as the global populist movement calls for more socialism, yet Australia’s Labor Party was defeated in a surprise ‘upset’ election. Juliette examines the costs of socialism and concludes that deficit spending can continue indefinitely, until inflation re-emerges as a macro risk

 


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All-Star Brent Johnson: Much higher stock prices possible

Santiago Capital founder Brent Johnson says that U.S. Dollar appreciation could make U.S. stocks (yes, stocks, not treasuries) the preferred safe-haven asset for foreign investors who’ll realize a double-return from investing in U.S. stocks in an appreciating U.S. Dollar macro environment where the return on the stock’s appreciation is enhanced by the foreign exchange performance of the investor’s conversion from his local currency into USD in order to purchase U.S. equities


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Variant Perception data driven approach
  • Something's got to give
  • Where leading indicators are pressuring USD
  • Outlook on US equities and bonds
  • Perspective on the Fed's cut to its IOER
  • Collateral, lending conditions and tighter bank-credits
  • China, liquidity and growth
  • External headwinds remain growth impediment

 

 

 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Simon will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (59.61 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (146 KB)

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This week's panelists: Joe McMonigle, Chris Cook and Tracy Shuchart.

  • Joe McMonigle weighs in on OPEC/JMMC meeting outlook
  • Tracy Shuchart on OPEX and contract roll
  • Chris Cook on forward curves
  • Group discussion on Geopolitics (Game of drones / Saudi Tanker attacks, Iran Sanctions, Venezuela, China trade war)
  • Group discussion on bull/bear arguments and crude oil price outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

Tracy Shuchart Chartbook


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All-Star Julian Brigden: The Fed should cut rates NOW!

MI2 Partners founder Julian Brigden explains why the Fed is already late to cut interest rates, and the reason has nothing to do with a China-U.S. trade war.


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male silhouette.On today's episode of MacroVoices All Stars, our host Erik Townsend welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth to talk about why she thinks Jay Powell is "the Grinch that stole liquidity"


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male silhouette.On today's episode of MacroVoices All Stars, our host Erik Townsend welcomes Luke Gromen to talk about the trade war between US and China


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Impact of policy change on the yield curve
  • Drivers of volatility in rates
  • Fed taking the pro-inflationary stance
  • Futures driven equity unwind
  • CTA positioning on the SPX
  • SPX/SPY/QQQ Gamma/Delta extremes
  • Consolidated Gamma flip
  • VVIX and VIX positioning
  • Vol is either "too high" or S&P should be a lot lower
  • Buyside embrace economic pessimism

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Charlie will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (65.50 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (175 KB)

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The inaugural episode of MacroVoices ENERGY WEEK featuring panelists Art Berman, Anas Alhajjii and Patricia Hemsworth.

  • Topic 1: Glut or crisis on the horizon? 
  • Topic 2: Crude Quality Matters.

Supporting Materials for Download

 Art Berman Chartbook

 Anas Alhajji Chartbook


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Current status of inflation
  • The FED's inflation framework and its credibility
  • How the FED is failing to meet its inflation mandate
  • Lower rates and its effect on the yield curve and inflation expectations
  • Possibility of a financial crash and economic downturn
  • FED-induced inflation shock and its effect on bond yields and risk asset valuations
  • How the higher break in the US dollar will affect inflation expectations and the FED's cutting cycle
  • What is ahead - policy path and inflation outlook
  • China/US trade negotiations and its effect on global liquidity and global reflation

 

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (71.56 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (145 KB)

male silhouette.MacroVoices HOT TOPICS are a new offering in conjunction with MacroVoices Premium.

Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reacting to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today’s Hot Topic is fund manager Kyle Bass’ recent investor letter questioning Hong Kong’s ongoing relevance in the global financial system. Louis-Vincent Gave runs Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based institutional advisor. In today’s Hot Topic interview, Louis offers an “opposing editorial” view, strongly at odds with Kyle Bass’ views on Hong Kong.

Supporting Materials for Download

Louis-Vincent Gave Chartbook


Download the   audio MP3 File (31.25 MB)

pippa malmgren Arthur Berman x125 PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshot
julian brigden headshotLukeGromenDanielle.jpg

We’re launching MacroVoices Premium with the first episode of the new MacroVoices All-Stars format!

This week’s All-Stars episode includes short-form interviews with:

  • Dr. Pippa Malmgren
  • Art Berman
  • Prof. Steve Keen
  • Julian Brigden
  • Luke Gromen
  • Danielle DiMartino Booth

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook

male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr.Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr.Hunt discuss:

  • Outlook on US economy and the global economy
  • Synchronized global downturn and risks of a recession
  • Zero bound for policy rates and its risk
  • How long can the system sustain in a ZIRP environment
  • Debt induced weakness undermining growth rate
  • What's next, quantitative easing or debt monetization
  • Perspective on the FEDs ability to print money
  • Destabilization of the global monetary system
  • Where to position trades on the bond yield curve
  • Deflationary risks in this environment
  • Perspectives on Modern Monetary Theory

 

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • The definition and the history of Eurodollar
  • Eurodollar as global reserve currency
  • Who really governs US dollar
  • Interbank borrowing, shadow money and Eurodollar transactions
  • Bretton Woods gold exchange system vs. Eurodollar system
  • How the global economy and the global financial system depend on Eurodollar system
  • The breakdown of Eurodollar system and the Great Global Monetary Crisis
  • The Eurodollar squeeze and its effect on the global system
  • Correlation between the Eurodollar squeeze and the US dollar index

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (65.40 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (209 KB)

PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Benefits of the U.S. losing its reserve currency status
  • International trade and deindustrialization of U.S.
  • U.S. Government budget and trade deficits
  • Possible fiscal crisis and the increase of US Treasury Yields
  • Devaluation of the dollar, imports and inflation shock
  • Risk of global currency to replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
  • Consequences of decrease in demand for US dollar
  • Runaway inflation and runaway trade deficit
  • Government spending, current inequality in income tax system
  • Risks and opportunities of MMT

 

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Howe HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

  • Insights from Neil on how the Fourth Turning is unfolding
  • Climax’s at the end of the Fourth Turning
  • Socialism, populism and extremism in politics
  • What is in store for the second half of the fourth turning
  • Current economic expansion is running out of workers
  • Effect of population composition
  • Late-cycle dynamics and real GDP growth trends
  • Correlations of term spreads and consumer confidence
  • Term spreads, credit cycles and volatility
  • Demographic trends for the long-term future

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Neil will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (60.11 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (192 KB)

Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peteres to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Where are the equity markets heading next?
  • What are the biggest risks in the markets today?
  • Considerations on volatility on FX and interest rates.
  • Will the current trend in Treasury yields continue?
  • How will the next 10 years economically look?
  • Eric Peters perspective on MMT
  • Where are the China/US relations going?
  • Rise of populism around the world
  • Growth of U.S. Isolationism

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Juliette Declercq - Financial Repression ThemeJulietteDeclercqHeadshot 125x

  • Perspective on the Fed pivot
  • What is the trade in this market environment

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David Rosenberg headshot 250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg back to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Thoughts on the Fed policy shift
  • Is the market still in a topping formation?
  • Are we in an earnings recession?
  • How low will yields go on Treasury Bonds?
  • Has the MMT crowd discovered something new?
  • Will we see helicopter money during the next downturn?
  • What can go wrong with the implementation of Modern Monetary Theory?
  • Looking back to the Ben Bernanke playbook from 2002
  • What is in store for the corporate bond market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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The Big Picture Trading Post Game Chart Book

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Oil price collapse was more than a correction
  • World production surplus for 2019-2020
  • Asking if OPEC matters anymore?
  • U.S. Oil production
  • Trends in world liquid production
  • Perspective on the Brent and WTI curves
  • Why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI
  • Increasing short bets on oil
  • Future of U.S. E&P companies
  • Cost of drilling wells

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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BarryRitholtzErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Barry Ritholtz to MacroVoices. Erik and Barry discuss:

  • Defining Bull and Bear Markets
  • Bullish case for equities
  • Dollar still the best option
  • Where are interest rates heading?
  • Are junk bonds at risk?
  • China credit risk
  • Trends in populism and socialism
  • Crony Capitalism
  • What could go wrong with MMT?

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Charlie McElligott - Ides of MarchCharles Mcelligott Headshot 125x

Quarterly Op-Ex Seasonality
Extremes in option $Delta (SPX, SPY and QQQ)
Resumption of buyback blackout window
Systematic trend models - sell triggers

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Perspective on the U.S./China Trade War
  • Is this about trade or the Korean peninsula?
  • Chinese strategy in the South China Sea
  • The future of Donald Trump
  • China and Russia relations
  • Future of hypersonic warfare
  • Trends in socialism and populism
  • Surveillance Capitalism
  • Outlook for the equity markets

 

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LukeGromenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

  • Underlying motives & timing
  • Oil, Petrodollar, and global Treasury Holdings
  • Drivers behind the strong dollar
  • Vicious Cycle in US Balance of Payments
  • Timing the dollar endgame
  • How does the dollar bear market playout?
  • Entitlements and the trends in populism
  • Deflating the debt bubble
  • How does gold play into the story?
  • What are the range of possibilities for the debt crisis?

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  BRENT JOHNSONBrentJohnsonx125

  • Alternative timeframes for the dollar endgame
  • Why the dollar can continue to rise in the interim 

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Filia HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

  • How severe could a bear market be?
  • Complex dynamic systems
  • Short-term crash vs. extended bear market
  • Phase transitions and twin bubbles
  • Tipping points, crash hallmarks and butterflies
  • Why are the risks now?
  • Are treasury bonds going to be the benefactor?
  • How to play the short side of the markets?
  • Populism is the elephant in the room
  • Alternative monetary policy 

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Gurevich PhotoErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Bigger picture outlook in the business cycle
  • Perspective on the yield curve steepener
  • Outlook Treasury bonds
  • Where is the dollar trend heading next?
  • Quantitative tightening and easing in this cycle
  • Australian and Canadian economies
  • Outlook on Chinese economy
  • What is on the horizon for Japan?
  • What is in the future for Europe?
  • Where is gold heading in the bigger picture?
  • Interest rates as a predictor of equity markets

 

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Grant WilliamsErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams back to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Are we in a cyclical bear market? 
  • Where are we headed next on treasury yields? 
  • Is the world turning Japanese? 
  • Escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan 
  • Update on how things are developing on Australian Real Estate
  • Risks of a recession in Australia  
  • Perspective on the rise of global populism  
  • Macron, France and the future of Europe
  • Outlook on gold and the yuan/gold ratio
  • What is the next move in the U.S. Dollar? 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- MACRO TOURIST KEVIN MUIR discussing Modern Monetary Theory Kevin Muir 2019

The Macro Tourist - Everything you wanted to know about MMT (but were afraid to ask)

Watch Erik Townsend joining Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on the new Market Huddle Show https://markethuddle.com/

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RussellNapierMacroVoicesErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier back to MacroVoices. Erik and Patrick discuss:

  • Where are treasury bonds heading next?
  • Foreign buyers of treasury bonds
  • How does China effect global growth?
  • Tightening of Chinese monetary policy
  • Which central bank is dictating global inflation
  • Fed policy and the trend of monetary policy
  • Outlook for developed stock markets
  • Consequences of loose monetary policy
  • Is the decade long bull market over?
  • Is the Fed out of bullets?
  • Outlook for the U.S. Dollar

Russell Napiers: A Practical History of Financial Markets Course Details

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • China Trade Collapse
  • Update on China Credit Impulse
  • PBoC Liquidity Operations
  • Bear market rally or continuation of bull market?
  • Fading the Fed’s economic optimism
  • Sequencing that could cause a force in on the equity markets
  • CTA Model Positioning across asset classes
  • Positioning in risk parity funds
  • Purge in equity fund flows in Q4 2018
  • Fear the steepener

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Christopher Cole Headshot 2019Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Dissecting what happened in February 2018
  • Implicit and explicit short vol risk
  • Perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind
  • Impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets
  • Link between volatility and the credit cycle
  • Will the Fed have the ammunition to come to rescue?
  • Perspective of the risk parity funds
  • Stock/bond correlation risk to pension funds
  • What does it take to make money long volatility?

You are strongly advised to listen to Chris Cole’s prior interview, The Alchemy of Risk before listening to this update
Click to listen to Chris Cole's interview back in Janauary 2018

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Update on uranium and uranium producers
  • Outlook on oil prices
  • Opportunities in the steel industry
  • Investing in the diamond industry
  • What is happening in the resource industry?
  • How to be a successful resource investor

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YearEndShowImage2018Join Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna as they spend an episode reviewing the best market calls of 2018:

  • Calling the top of Bitcoin
  • Francesco Filia and Kevin Muir on the VIX ETNs
  • Chris Cole on VIX and system risks
  • Darius Dale on Chinese economy
  • Buy the dip calls in Q2
  • Russell Napier on the Emerging Markets
  • David Rosenberg on markets and corporate bonds
  • Jesse Felder on the FAANG
  • Charlie McElligott on liquidity
  • Keith McCullough on bond yields peaked

 

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DanielWantx250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Want to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Understanding system thinking
  • Perspective on the OTC derivative markets
  • Counter party risk in the derivative markets
  • System wide margin calls back in 2007-08
  • Financial aggregates – the world in perspective
  • Understanding the global financial situation
  • Market analytics tools

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- BRENT JOHNSON BrentJohnsonx125

  • Where is the U.S. Dollar going post FOMC
  • What is the outlook for gold
  • Where are the stock markets going next

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EdwardAltman250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Edward Altman to MacroVoices. Erik and Edward discuss:

  • Credit cycle outlook
  • Length of benign credit cycles
  • Historical default rates and recessions
  • Surge in U.S. corporate leverage
  • Non-financial Corporate Debt to GDP
  • Considerations on Global Debt
  • 2007 vs 2017 Health of High Yield Firms
  • Major risks going forward

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- LOUIS-VINCENT GAVE - AN IMPORTANT CROSSROADLouis Gave 125x

  • Why a Liquidity Squeeze?
  • Havoc in the US corporate bond market
  • The end of Chin-America

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JulietteDeclercqHeadshot250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Impact of trade war on the global economy
  • PBOC and Chinese monetary policy
  • Global growth outlook
  • U.S. Dollar and U.S. monetary policy outlook
  • Is the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?
  • What is in the cards for 2019?
  • Perspective on U.S. housing and its impact
  • Political turmoil in France and outlook on Europe

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JulianBrigden 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • What is driving the bond market right now?
  • Is it all about demographics?
  • The global excesses in the equity markets
  • Are the U.S. housing markets overpriced?
  • Where is the next trade in treasuries?
  • Putting on the steepener
  • Is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce?
  • Inflation considerations in 2019
  • What is the next move for the Fed?

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J ChristianErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Perspective on the gold and USD price action in October
  • Outlook for gold for 2019 and beyond
  • How does silver playout relative to gold?
  • Gold:silver ratio in perspective
  • Why investment demand has dropped and is it finally bottoming?
  • Drivers on the dollar, bonds and the equity markets
  • What is the risk gold could decline during an equity bear market?
  • Intermarket relationships of gold to other assets
  • Perspective on statistics from the gold and silver markets
  • Platinum and palladium outlook

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Art BermanArthur Berman x125

Art joins Erik and Patrick to discuss the current bear market in oil and asking where is the right price for oil. Chart book available to registered listenered. 

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Keith McCullough headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • How the investment landscape has evolved?
  • Marginal rates of change in growth and inflation
  • Why are deflationary pressures on the horizon? 
  • Global economic landscape
  • Staying ahead of the curve with the study of rates of change
  • U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts
  • Key macro themes into the year-end
  • Closer look at the underlying drivers going into 2019
  • Are companies likely to experience a margin squeeze
  • Trouble for China in 2019

TD/TMX Options Education Day - Free to attend - November 21, 2018

Front cover 1 200

BONUS: Beyond Blockchain, The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency - Chapter 1 Preview

by Erik Townsend

The cryptocurrency trend of the past few years has continued to grow despite widespread predictions that it would just be a flash in the pan. Blockchain is suddenly everyone's favorite buzzword. But what if there's more to this story than meets the eye? What if Digital Currency is about to change the world in ways beyond our imagination? And what if geopolitical forces our politicians don't even understand have already inspired China and Russia to use Digital Currency to attack the U.S. Dollar's dominance over the global financial system?

Erik covers these subjects and more in his recently published book.Listen to a preview of Chapter 1 here.

For more information and to order the paperback, Kindle, or audiobook Click Here

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TepperErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jonathan Tepper to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss:

  • Is the market correction over?
  • Outlook for U.S. interest rates
  • Shorter and longer-term drivers in the dollar
  • China and trade war escalation
  • What are the leading indicators suggesting for inflation?
  • How to interpret the drop in oil prices?
  • What is next for Europe?
  • Update on Australian, Canadian & U.S. real estate
  • The Myth of Capitalism
  • Monopolies and competition

 

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Opportunities on drone technology
  • The leaders in unmanned aerial vehicles
  • Data privacy in the firmware
  • Drones and risks in being used for terrorism
  • Leadership and the new paradigms
  • Speed of technological change and government
  • Situational awareness

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

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DanielLacalleHeadshot250x

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Market correction or end of the bull market?
  • Fed’s responsiveness to changing monetary policy
  • Where are bond yield’s heading from here?
  • ECB and Europe’s position on Italy
  • Risk of high yield corporate credit in Europe
  • Emerging markets currency crisis
  • China, trade war, and the credit bubble
  • Gold and the Yuan correlation
  • Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession?
  • End of global synchronized growth
  • Outlook on commodities into 2019

 

 

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Marin Katusa - Katusa Research Marin Katusa 125x

  • Is the gold breakout for real?
  • Update on Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Steve Hanke 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Hanke to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Drivers of the recessions over the last 30 years
  • Perspectives on Lehman Brothers failure
  • M4 Money Supply as the broadest measure
  • Dangers in quantitative tightening
  • Commercial banks drive money supply
  • Stabilizing the U.S. Dollar Euro rate
  • Understanding past hyperinflation
  • Perspective on Venezuela's hyperinflation 

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Chart Book for this week's episode

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Perspective on global sovereign debt
  • Risks in private debt
  • Is government debt still a safe haven? 
  • Junk bonds, corporate debt and credit spreads
  • When does the market start to price risk into junk bonds?
  • How does another financial crisis occur?
  • Vulnerability of France, Canada and Australia
  • Understanding the debt situation in China
  • Global de-dollarization

Prof Steve Keen - Patreon Link 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- CHARLIE MCELLIGOTT - UPDATE ON THE EQUITY MARKETS

Charles Mcelligott Headshot 125x

Discussing the market selloff and the drivers for the next move in the S&P500 .  

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Louis 201211Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss:

  • Drivers in emerging markets route
  • Perspective on global equity markets
  • How long can the divergence last between US and global equity markets?
  • Impact on U.S. treasuries
  • Is the global de-dollarization
  • Dissolution of Chimerica
  • NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain
  • Outlook for gold and precious metals

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Julian Brigden: Update on the Breakout on Yieldsjulian brigden headshot 125x

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Keith Dicker headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Understanding the government bond bubble
  • Can equities rally during a bond route?
  • Rethinking bonds and portfolio allocations
  • Artificially suppressed interest rates
  • Has the bear market in bonds started?
  • Growth in the sovereign debt markets
  • Impact of higher rates on governments
  • Outlook on equities and the gold

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Comparative inventory on oil
  • Inventory correlation to price
  • Price cycles and the oil-price yield curve
  • Impact of U.S. exporting oil
  • Trends in tight oil rig counts
  • Managed money unwinding net long positions
  • Distillate and gasoline inventories
  • Why is backwardation collapsing on WTI
  • Sensitivities to supply concerns
  • Discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts
  • Where are oil prices going in 2019?

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Curve steepener as a recession signal
  • Dollar, real rates and inflation expectations impact on S&P500
  • Gauging tighter financial conditions
  • Chinese credit/financing impulse
  • Late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders
  • Fearing the inversion or the steepener on the yield curve?
  • Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and recessions
  • Hedge fund underperformance and the performance chase

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Why uranium and why now?
  • Political and geopolitical considerations
  • Understanding the royalty and streaming business
  • Uranium royalties
  • Private placements in a streaming model
  • Understanding warrants on resource companies
  • Focusing on companies that are acquisition targets

Information about Marin Katusa's Premium Research 

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DDB Headshot NewErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss:

  • Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair
  • Jackson Hole – Draghi and Kuroda absence
  • Jackson Hole – How did Powell do?
  • Impacts from the trade war
  • Should markets be concerned about QT
  • Impact of the rising dollar on Fed policy
  • Where is the economy headed?
  • Inflation expectations moving forward
  • Economic outlook in Europe and China
  • What is the trade into the year end?

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Considerations on Federal Reserve Intervention
  • Switzerland as a major supplier of dollars
  • Structural changes to the Eurodollar System
  • Riskless return shifts to returnless risk
  • Banks simply do not want to do it anymore
  • Impact to sustained economic growth
  • Impact on global economies including EM and China

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Collateral problems with gold in 2008
  • Liquidity risk, not credit
  • Basic Interbank Function – Basel ‘Conjuring’
  • Larger issue of balance sheet capacity
  • Management of the asset side – dark leverage
  • Impaired assets and OTTI
  • Negative swap spreads assaulting conventional financial sense
  • Pro-cyclical positive monetary feedback loop
  • Balance sheet capacity – the modern bank run

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • The Lost Dollar Decade
  • LIBOR and EFF spreads over Fed funds target
  • Global dollar markets in perspective
  • Into the shadows of the crisis
  • Financial crisis and the gross outstanding CDS
  • CDS liquidity crisis

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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jessefeldermacrovoicepicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Drivers behind the everything bubble
  • Will Quantitative Tightening be a trigger?
  • Is this a topping process in the markets?
  • Impacts of a high degree of market leverage
  • The Buffet yard stick
  • What is in store for the FAANG stocks?
  • How to position yourself defensively in this market?
  • Positioning on agricultural and gold mining stocks
  • Inflation and the risks of an inflation pickup

Throughout the interview Erik and Jesse refer to the chart book.  This chart book is available free for registered users.  Register now for free and find the links below. 

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maa photoErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Martin Armstrong to MacroVoices. Erik and Martin discuss:

  • Is there room for the equity bull market to continue?
  • Outlook on the global bond markets
  • Is a monetary crisis on the horizon?
  • Outlook for the U.S. Dollar
  • How do the geopolitics playout in Europe?
  • Short bonds long equities?
  • Perspectives on China and their credit markets
  • Where is gold headed next?
  • U.S. politics and the midterm elections
  • What is next for Russia/U.S. relations

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Brent Johnson: CEO of Santiago Capitalbrent johnson

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcom Brent Johnson to the show to discuss everything gold.  They discuss the dollar, short-term and long-term outlook for gold.  

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David Rosenberg headshot 250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and Dave discuss:

  • One more leg higher in the S&P500 or is the top in? 
  • Outlook on junk and investment grade bonds
  • How do you do play the short on low grade corporates?
  • Secular and cyclical outlook on inflation
  • Where is the US Dollar heading?  
  • What is going on with 10-year treasury yields and where are they heading?  
  • Update as to where we are in the business cycle 
  • Cyclical vs. defensive stocks in the 2nd half of the year 
  • Outlook on the Canadian dollar 
  • Where are we in the Canadian housing cycle?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Angie Setzer @GoddessofGrainAngieSetzer HeadShot

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Angie Setzer to the show to discuss everything about the grain markets.

During the interview, they discuss wheat, corn and soybeans, food inflation and the impact of tariffs.

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Trump, art of the deal, trade wars
  • North Korea, a renegade or Chinese puppet
  • Russia, Syria, US and chemical warfare
  • Russia and a new global reserve currency
  • Facebook’s impact on geo-politics and financial markets
  • Where is social media data mining leading us?
  • The Leadership Lab: Understanding Leadership in the 21st century

 

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ChrisCookimageErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cook to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • How regulators look at markets
  • The blow out of time spreads in WTI
  • Oil deals outside of the market
  • Syncrude going offline and its impact
  • What is the “big long” and what it predicts
  • Who is buying futures contracts 2.5 years out and why?
  • Dark inventory, what is it and how does it fit into the big picture?
  • Energy dominance and the white house
  • China and the Petro-Yuan contract
  • Gaming US exports and inventory
  • Time spreads and war

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  Josh Steiner:  Update on Australian and U.S. Housing Markets. 

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Replacing the USD as the world reserve currency
  • The impact of protectionist policies on financial markets
  • FED reductions and their impact around the world
  • How accurate is the current unemployment rate and what does it mean?
  • Entitlements and they will become a serious problem
  • The changes we can expect in central bank attitudes moving forward
  • Demographics, baby boomers, and millennials and their impact over the coming years on financial markets
  • Inflation vs deflation which is right and how to be sure

SPECIAL GUEST: Kevin Muir - This week's co-host and post-game guest.  Make sure to download the post-game chart book as Erik and Kevin will be refering to it through the podcast.  

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LukeGromenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

  • Current outlook on the U.S. dollar
  • Shift of funding in the U.S. deficits
  • U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”
  • Treasury bonds trading like a risky asset
  • Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance
  • Emerging market considerations
  • China accelerating global de-dollarization
  • U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran
  • Gold and the gold/oil ratio
  • How to trade the second half of 2018

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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EllenAnasJoe

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Dr. Ellen Wald to the show. Discussed this week:

Dr. Ellen Wald

  • Saudi Arabia's perspective on the oil markets?
  • Perspective about Saudi Aramco
  • Understanding Mohammad bin Salman
  • Social Politics in Saudi Arabia

Anas Alhajji & Joe McMonigle

  • What is driving the oil markets right now?
  • Considerations on the Iranian sanctions
  • Insights into next week’s OPEC meeting
  • Bigger picture geopolitical outlook for the oil markets
  • How to interpret the backwardation on oil?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik, Anas and Joe will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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JeffreyShermanHeadShotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Sherman to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Big picture outlook on bonds, interest rates and inflation
  • Considerations on the treasury COT reports
  • Is there a recession coming in the U.S.?
  • How much upside on the U.S. Dollar?
  • Is the trade being short global high yield bonds?
  • How does the economy deal with higher rates and inflation?
  • Bullish outlook on gold?
  • Investing into commodities and commodity funds

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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nomi PrinsErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Nomi Prins to MacroVoices. Erik and Nomi discuss:

  • Why has QE never led to runaway inflation?
  • How has the market been propped up for 10 years without consequence?
  • What does the ECB own today?
  • The bank of Japan, their program and what it contains?
  • Central banks around the world and how they compare?
  • When does tapering occur on a global scale?

For the second featured interview Erik Townsend welcomes Pat Hemsworth to discuss:

  • Why Saudi Arabia and Russia can’t make up their minds about oil prices?
  • Iran sanctions, expectations and what they mean?
  • Venezuela, production and what is next?
  • OPEC, faking it till they make it?
  • What is the forward curve telling us about the market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Pat will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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LacyHuntBio2017Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy discuss:

  • Has the bond bear market started?
  • What are the opposing views?
  • Shorting high yield debt and junk credit
  • Where to be on the yield curve right now
  • Will America ever be able to repay the debt?
  • Where is the point of no return on debt?
  • Considerations on global over indebtedness
  • Endgame on the systemic problem of debt
  • Inflation expectations

 SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: KEVIN MUIR DISCUSSING THE CURRENT BOND MARKETS

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JulietteDeclercqHeadshot250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Outlook on the U.S. Dollar for 2018
  • Do rate differentials matter?
  • Has there been a regime shift?
  • Is equity risk premium just catching up to higher real yields?
  • How does the economic data tie back into bearish dollar narrative?
  • What has happened this year in the U.S. dollar?
  • Tactical considerations on a new U.S. dollar short
  • Market positioning on the interim
  • Can surprising strength in U.S. economy change the outlook?

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: TG MACRO'S TONY GREER

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Gave Charles PicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss:

  • The corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market
  • The Hong Kong dollar peg
  • China’s debt and related risks
  • The risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously
  • “The Upcoming Monetary War, With Gold as An Arbiter”
  • Gold bullish vs bearish
  • The return of secular inflation
  • What happened in the 70’s with inflation?
  • Preparing for the return of secular inflation

 

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RussellNapierMacroVoicesErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

  • Deflationary risks in the U.S. 
  • Context on current higher inflation prints
  • How high are risks of a credit event
  • Contagion risk if China “sneezes”
  • Consideration on the impact of higher rates
  • Do we still need a world reserve currency?
  • Is there a concern of the US government not being able to fund itself?
  • Impact of the global de-dollarization trend
  • What is in store for the gold markets?
  • What do investors need to consider in the current environment?
  • What comes next for the equity markets?
  • Impact on emerging market and junk bond markets
  • The falling Yen and its impact on Japan

 

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Considerations on uranium exports to from Russia to the US
  • What options does the US have for new uranium sources?
  • Is there an investment play for uranium?
  • Electric vehicles and why they’ll be a dominant trend over the coming years
  • Why is copper a key component, and how to play it during this trend
  • Is copper a sole source material for EV or is there an alternative?
  • Will more efficient electric vehicles require more or less copper?
  • The copper industry and its ability to scale up
  • The investment play for copper and uranium prices going up

 

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BassmanCudmoreSniderErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman, Mark Cudmore and Jeffrey Snider to the show. Discussed this week:

Harley Bassman: 

  • How will we know when the real bear market is on?
  • The implicit and explicit VOL trade and how long will it take to play out?
  • How will a bond sell off impact inflation?
  • The USD over then next few years

Mark Cudmore: 

  • Is this a correction or something much bigger?
  • The USD and the recent sideways consolidation, what does it mean?
  • Outlook for the bond market
  • Commodities, China, Europe and EM
  • Current stress on the Hong Kong Dollar

Jeffrey Snider:

  • Where are the equity markets headed?
  • What is going on with the Hong Kong Dollar?
  • Principles of a “Dollar Short”

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview with Harley Bassman. Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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DariusDaleMVheadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Darius Dale to MacroVoices. Erik and Darius discuss:

  • The U.S. growth cycle and its peak
  • Considerations on inflation
  • Earnings outlook for the rest of the year
  • Global divergence reiterated
  • Prognostications vs the reality of the markets
  • China’s massive credit expansion
  • One final leg in the dollar?
  • USD breakdown in currency and interest differentials

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Darius will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Simon WhiteErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Considerations on the equity markets
  • Post-crash dynamics
  • Medium-term drivers of the U.S. Dollar
  • Has something fundamentally changed in the U.S. treasury markets?
  • Where is the yield curve going?
  • TED and LIBOR OIS spreads
  • Outlook on the Canadian economy
  • Context on the Chinese economic outlook
  • Has the Japanese economy peaked?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Simon will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • How do things look in today’s market?
  • What is on the horizon for inflation?
  • Risks of runaway inflation
  • What comes next for equities?
  • Are the market highs in already?
  • What if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go?
  • US Dollar structural issues
  • What is causing the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds?
  • What levels should we be watching on the US Dollar?
  • Where to focus the bond short

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Julian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • What does the yield curve tell us?
  • US Treasury Curve
  • Changes from an Era of Fed Funds Rate Targeting
  • Reflections on the 2006-2009 curves
  • Reflation trends in the post GFC
  • Deconstructing Rates
  • Negative Term Premiums
  • Market Inflation Expectations
  • Eurodollar Futures & Effective Money
  • Central Bank Failure
  • This Flat Curve is the Bad One

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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John Mauldin MVErik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • Is this the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation?
  • What is the reason that we have a back up of interest rates?
  • How far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks?
  • With China’s banking assets now at 44 trillion how will this end?
  • Is inflation coming and what are the consequences?
  • What were some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year?

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST AND CO-HOST - Kevin Muir – market strategist at East West Investment Management and author of the MacroTourist. We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies the post game interview as Erik and Kevin will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Jim Grant MacroVoicesErik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • The state of the FED under J Powell 
  • What to make of rising treasury yields?
  • How far can the FED go before something breaks?
  • Outlook on Inflation
  • Perspective on gold
  • What can be the outcome of such a massive credit expansion?
  • Shorting junk bonds
  • What drivers of long term cycles and what can we expect to see next?
  • What happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920?
  • Considerations on what actions the government can take to deal with the debt

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them
  • What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done today?
  • The gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes”
  • What happened to gold in the 2008 crisis
  • What caused gold to turn at the end of 2008
  • Why do central banks still hold gold after 2008 and why are others not?
  • Why did gold peak in 2011 and what was so bearish about it in 2013?
  • How do dollar index futures fit into the gold story?
  • How has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?
  • How will gold play out if the dollar continues to slide
  • Topic nnInterbank lending statistics discontinued, what does it mean

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Rick Rule eErik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

  • Why focus on investing natural resources?
  • Using top down macro in resource investing
  • Rare earths and lithium 
  • What resources should investors focus on?
  • Uranium and nuclear energy
  • Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
  • Copper, Potash and Dry Bulk Shipping
  • Water as a commodity
  • China and the future of rare earths

 

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Is this just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger?
  • Is this all about rates or the VIX complex?
  • Why were the Inverse VIX products flawed
  • Context on the increasing rates and the movement of the dollar
  • Stagflation and inflation risks
  • Considerations on corporate debt and buybacks
  • Impact of the changes of leadership at the FED
  • Context on FED policy tools during the next recession
  • Is this a Bear Stearns moment for the markets?

 

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JaredDillianErik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss:

  • Drivers of this stock market drop
  • Is higher volatility here to stay?
  • The beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade
  • Future regulation of these specialty ETF products
  • Where are the markets heading from here? 
  • Bonds, interest rates and how high can rates go?
  • Where is the U.S. dollar heading next?
  • Dollars relationship to gold
  • Outlook on the Canadian economy

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUESTS:

Chris Cole from Artemis Capital - Follow up on his January 25th interview on Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk.
Devin Anderson - Managing Director - Postmortem on the implosion of the vol ETNs  

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